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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (15204)	11/10/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Podsiadlik: Agreed. If I did nothing over 2 weeks with a 50 point run in AMZN up, yes, I would take a negative hit in equity. I would expect to see such a run developing by the classic momentum signs--consistently increasing volumes and prices, which would flag me to adjust the portfolio. There are many more occurrences of 10 point time premiums at relative peaks, 10 to 20 times a year, than there are of 50 point runs. AMZN is much better dimensioned in my mind now than in July when it seemed nearly everyone was in bewilderment. I am intending to work the likelihood of capturing much of the premiums for a side income from AMZN. AMZN is not an investment. I would welcome a major run up. I would probably exit short calls at a loss, and watch momentum closely, and build a position in puts if the pricing seemed appropriate, in anticipation of a significant move downward within the next quarter to year. I expect 50% variation or so in my positions month to month. I try to position for 100+% returns. It seems the best approach for my personal situation. I still need to double to quadruple my capital to have a portfolio sufficiently capitalized to have sufficient income in both lean markets and richly tradable markets such as the current situation. I have been impoverished more than once in life (never by my market activities). Therefore it may be much more manageable for me to deal with the risks (potential variability) I select than many people who cling tightly to money, who may not sleep well with such positions. I understand risk-reward concepts financially. Present conditions seem opportune to me, and I would not expect the extraordinary present conditions to prevail into the foreseeable future. I expect the extraordinary market opportunities of present to moderate in the future. Who knows, at some point I may just become purely a coupon clipper! AMZN boils down to this. I may take a 50-100K hit in a year while facing the likelihood of 60-250K in gains. The wash to me is favorable positive, but requires management. Certainly there are no guarantees. I think I can manage properly. Best regards, m