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To: On the QT who wrote (77359)	11/9/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: LWolf	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

QT.... OT System Dynamics Are you familiar with Abedl-Hamid's work on system dynamics for Software Projects? Also Peter Senge has lots of references to system dynamics in "The Fifth Discipline". Ed Yourdon and (name escapes me) built modeling tools for software improvements based on system dynamics. We were into it fairly heavily a few years ago. I worked for a fellow that had Forrester as a professor. All very interesting stuff! But alas, different management pushes different things. regards, Laura

To: On the QT who wrote (77359)	11/11/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Jon Stept	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

On the QT- Hi. <Forrester Research> Thanx for all the info on system models. I belive there is enough meat on one of those models alone for a PhD candidate. Forrester Research is a well known and respected name through out the Information Technology community. A non-biased (some may argue this) source of statistical predictions that companies use to predict demand. They have a web site and anybody can purchase their reports for a few grand. I think they are one of the best sources. However, their track record needs to be established because they are not always right or not exactly right, and I don't expect them to be. Especially in technology when an event occurs that they did not predict. Like for PC's it may be they are under estimating the demand in non-US countries due to quicker than expected economic recoveries, applications that require greater MHZ, new applications (off the shelf pc based phone switches for example) and others that undoubtedly will occur. I remember when people said, "100 MHZ, wow it is so fast. I wont' have to buy a computer after I get this." And of course it is not enough because they have come out with other MHZ hogging applications upgrades that suffocate at that speed and they now have applications like the internet that will also suffocate at that speed. But 5 years ago few saw, even Forrester probably, the internet and the impact it would have. It is hard to see what is coming in the future. I would really like to get my hands on that Forrester Research report, but I am not going to spend the money to do it. I would spend some money to get the report. If history is any indicator of the future, than there will never be enough PC power. Primarily businesses will always be upgrading to remain competitive. Also, the United States seems to be leading the coordinated political effort to guide many economies to real market economies that had the political/economic systems with a large democratic component but failed. Just imagine when all these countries get competitive and upgrade their infrastructure. Most of the world has not even begun! Hopefully, that will happen. If the global economy is to work, it has to happen. Global competition and all business driving costs down by using the latest electronic technology. Just my opinion. Jon :)