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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (8633)	11/9/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Why is it...? Why is it that UTEK, STII and KMAG stand out most in my mind? However, again, I 'm only a 2 1/2 year listener. If you had bought Msft and Vod 2.5 years ago you would have made yourself quite a bit of greenbacks. As a holder of Utek I am in wait and see mode. There are times when investment patience is your biggest investment virtue. I held on to Vod, for example, for many years before the investment community recognized the seeming value in this company. Be patient real wealth is not created in weeks or months but over a period of many years no matter what most people on these threads claim.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (8633)	11/9/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

Tony, while I agree in general that industry knowledge is a good thing, I am reminded of James Morgan's claims, about a year ago, that the Asian flu would not hurt AMAT's business that much. In light of that, I find it difficult to fault Bob all that much on his semiconductor equipment calls. And I would have to say in general, that if you want guaranteed returns over a 2 1/2 year period, then individual stocks are not the place to be, know matter how much you know about an industry. I say again, this individual stock risk that Bob keeps talking about is not an academic concept. I also have a hard time getting past the fact that of the six stock picks that you and I have mentioned (MSFT, VOD, AMAT, UTEK, STII, and KMAG), if you had put equal amounts of money in each stock when it was recommended, your portfolio would be up over 500 per cent. And that assumes that he recommends selling the last four while they are down, which I am certain he is not going to do.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (8633)	11/10/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

One additional point I'd like to make about technical/industry knowledge vs. investing acumen: The other newsletter I subscribe to (besides Marketimer) is California Technology Stock Letter. Mostly for entertainment, I guess, because, although his articles seem to show plenty of industry and technical knowledge, his model portfolios never seem to make any money. So, given a choice between a newsletter writer with technical knowledge who never seems to make any money, and one whose expertise is mainly in investing who makes plenty of money, I'll take the latter any day of the week!

To: Tony Viola who wrote (8633)	11/11/1998 1:18:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 42834

>>>Where were you when he suggested dollar-cost-averaging into AMAT a few months ago?<<< Tony:<<AMAT went into a swoon this summer when the overall market tanked, like most tech stocks. When the market recovered, it did also, along with most of the rest. Where's the astuteness in that dollar cost averaging call? It came, I believe, just before AMAT and most other semis tanked. When AMAT recovered, they all did (except a couple of the semi equips).>> Tony, Bob made his statements on AMAT and others on the Saturday 08/08/98 show. On Friday, 08/07, AMAT closed at 35 1/8. Let's assume you decided to take his advice and dollar cost by investing about $10,000 in AMAT monthly starting on Monday, 08/10/98. You were also lucky enough to catch an even price in the trading range on those days {makes my math easier.} Also, you are an aggressive investor and did not want any odd lots so you rounded up to the next 100 shares. So, on 08/10 you bought 300 shares @34. On 09/07 you bought 400 shares @25. On 10/05 you bought 500 shares @23. On 11/02 you bought 300 shares @34. Total cost $41,900. You were a prudent investor with an on-line broker and the 4 purchases cost you $100. Total cost to you was $42,000 for 1500 shares. Average share price for you would then be $28.00. AMAT closed today at 35 5/8 making value = $53,445. Your return IN ONLY 3 MONTHS is 27%. Uh, Tony, what's wrong with that? Seems pretty astute to me. Jeff