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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15232)	11/9/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

Roger, I tend to agree. The ERP folks have gotten a taste of reality in the past few months, and the time to short them was BEFORE the sell-off. Wish I had listened to my own advice on that one. There may still be some downside, especially leading up to the magic 2000 date, but it's far from certain as the effects of the Y1999 slowdown are being felt NOW. By this time next year they'll be back to selling upgrades for people who already have their software, and new product to the many people who still want to buy ERP software for other than Y2K reasons. And some companies, like I2, Manugistics and some of the customer-contact SW companies can continue to do really well in this market as well. SEBL, however still seems irrationally valued despite their pre-eminent position. mg