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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Julius Wong who wrote (1168)	11/10/1998 4:59:00 AM
From: Bernie Kaplan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4916

Julius - I'm usually up and at it between 4 and 5 in the morning here in New York, checking my momentum figures, rankings, the technical charts of the Selects and the market, and the status of all my managed accounts. It is an extremely peaceful atmosphere, which, with a nice hot cup of joe at my side, has always made for exceptional concentration. I sure wish I still had the youthful energy of yesteryear to stay up all night and party, but those are certainly days long gone by. Based on the above noted travails, I can usually tell if any action is going to be required on my part at the market's opening, and my studies of the Selects tell me if anything short of a major downdraft is going to produce a Sell signal during the day. Keep in mind, from the time that a fund generates a Buy signal and I invest in it, all that I am looking for is a significant enough loss of momentum to produce a Sell signal. Even after yesterday's rather tepid activity, all we have now are considerably more Selects producing negative momentum in the short term (used for Buy signals), and fewer funds producing positive momentum that is greater than that of the market or the family average in the intermediate term (used for Sell signals). The only fund to produce a Sell signal yesterday was Environmental Services. It last Buy was on Oct. 20th, so a sale this morning will produce about a 5.5% return, after fees, for a holding period of just under 3 weeks. Energy Services is also producing a negative reading in the intermediate term for the first time since its Buy on Oct. 15th. Its gain to date of 22% gives us a bit more leeway before deciding to lock in our gains .. perhaps one more day at most. It has rapidly fallen from 1st to 40th place in the intermediate term in only the past 5 days, which coincides with my projected decline in the transports and the other energy related sectors. I was very happy to see my three largest holdings, Computers, Electronics, and Biotechnology, all post gains yesterday when only 7 funds finished in positive territory. With 5 sessions to go before the Fed meeting, I still expect a rather uneventful week on Wall Street with a slight bias to the downside. Next week may be different, especially when an additional rate cut is not forthcoming. I would not object to any significant declines, however, since the worst that could happen would be a locking in of some terrific gains that have been made since early in October. An extremely powerful downday, however, would not be welcome since it would eliminate a more substantial chunk of the profit pie. I would still emphasize technology until that point, however. Happy investing. Bernie