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To: marcos who wrote (22792)11/10/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: Alex  Respond to of 116786
 
Rivlin sees slowdown

Federal Reserve vice chair says U.S. economy is slowing, cites global turmoil

November 9, 1998: 6:02 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Alice Rivlin warned on Monday the U.S. economy was slowing considerably because of turmoil in the global economy, but she stopped short of predicting a recession next year.
<Picture>In an interview with Reuters, Rivlin said the extreme stress in U.S. financial markets that caused the central bank to cut official interest rates twice in the past six weeks had subsided somewhat, but she cautioned that the situation was still cause for considerable concern.
<Picture>Rivlin said falling exports and weaker employment growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector, were a clear signal for more sluggish growth ahead. "It's happening to a degree that's certainly slowing the economy considerably -- one hopes not too much," she said.
<Picture>"I expect we will see a slowing economy. I don't think we're going into recession but the plausible forecasts are lower-than-trend growth," she added. Trend growth is widely estimated by many economists as growth in U.S. output of about 2.5 percent a year.
<Picture>Rivlin said that while U.S. labor markets were still tight, and consumer spending still robust, the risk of slower growth in the economy clearly outweighed the danger of higher inflation.
<Picture>She said that recovery was "just beginning" in crisis-hit Asia and noted considerable "nervousness" about the situation in Latin America, particularly Brazil, and emerging markets more generally.
<Picture>"The basic situation around the world is still difficult, and I guess the best you can say realistically is that it's not getting worse," she noted. <Picture: Link to top>

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