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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (566)	11/10/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4691

Shane, Almost always you will find that bottom-up estimates will be above actual results. The only exception that I can find in the last 15 years is 1988 following the "crash" of 87. The pessimism of this period actually resulted in analyst's earnings to be below what actually occurred in 1988. On the other hand top-down estimates seem to be above half the time and below half the time. It is clear that individual analysts have a bias towards the industry and companies they follow. I would always be suspicious of using this type of aggregated earnings forecasts. -Robert