To: cm who wrote (942 ) 11/10/1998 8:43:00 PM From: cm Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2339
About Geoff Moore's Pronouncements... By raising the specter of SAP, Geoff gets work from MANU. MANU has fallen by the wayside... perhaps not irrevocably... and maybe Moore can help them right themselves. But, it's going to take more than a marketing message or vision to make MANU well, again. Currently, ITWO holds 24% of the SCM market. MANU has, I think, 19%. Those figures are going to spread even more in ITWO's favor going forward. There is virtually no research organization that is speculating anything different. And, on this score, I wouldn't even need the second-ing from research groups... this is apparent to me on its face. The SAP-focused "nobody's ever gotten fired for" argument is one of those chestnuts I love to roast. It was once said of IBM PCs. More recently it's been said of Computer Associates systems management products (a couple of years back, mind you.) (That last example was drawn from my own experience... and may not be particularly universal.) In the meantime, the SAP SCM cause is not exactly advanced by Compaq New Zealand calling a press conference to basically lambast the SAP SCM offering for failing to deliver on its promises. Nor can it be advanced by the fact that SAP's largest R/3 installation, Seimens, is an ITWO customer. And that Siemens Nixdorf, the world's largest SAP reseller, is also an ITWO customer. SAP is going to get its share, without question. I respect SAP. I've met some of their people. Seen their products in the workplace. Have heard customer grumblings. Have read negative articles. Have also read some fairly positive articles. The fact that is SAP is not going to go away... or be un-reckoned with in the SCM space. One would be foolish to discount such a big company with such a big brand and so many bloody customers. But, right around us, a sea change in the nature of commerce is happening. We now have a category of business called e-commerce that is, at least in part, notable for how exceptional it is. We now have a poster child for direct customer relationships and customer intimacy, i.e., Dell, that is notable for how exceptional--as in being an exception--it is. But, the direct model and e-commerce/e-business will NOT be EXCEPTIONS going forward a few years. The balance of power between customer and provider is shifting decidedly in favor of the customer. (I tell my own clients that if they peer quizzically at things e-commerce and think that they are somehow protected from this whirlwind, they are missing a HUGE COMPETITIVE OPPORTUNITY... one that THEIR competitors will most likely NOT miss.) More, now, better, choices, choices, choices: these are the mantras going forward. All of which will mean even FASTER PRODUCT CYCLES, PERSONALIZED WEB SERVICE, PRIORITY WEB SERVICE (like H-P's WebQoS products), MORE PRODUCT CONFIGURATIONS AND CHOICES. And will require, yes, require real-time supply chain PLANNING and optimization. And business processes that are radicalized and redefined. And EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS plays right into the hands of a company of ITWO's ilk and product portfolio. I don't think SAP fully "gets" this, yet. I DO think that ITWO does. Of course, I'm no Geoff Moore. And, as always, I Reserve The Right To Be Wrong (IRTBW) ... and Best Regards to All ITWO LONGs, c m