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To: Paul Engel who wrote (68204)	11/10/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: stak	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

The consumer market is a different beast . You continually grab on to THE one fad that you know and hold on desparately as the world is about to change. At least you'll know what hit you. stak PS Do you know what IBM is bringing out in the next year as far as the business model of computing goes?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (68204)	11/10/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: stak	Respond to of 186894

Here's another fad. >>However soon there's going to be a "future shock" in the PC industry. The status quo that was the "law" forever and a day will come to an end. Like hot lead shrapnel violating flesh. The communications industry will go thru even greater pain shortly.<< =================================================================== Convergence will force telecom industry shakeout Partnerships key to survival, Cisco president says By SIMON AVERY The Financial Post Telephone calls will become free in five years, leaving telecom companies with the prospect of losing 98% of their revenue unless they adapt, the head of Cisco Systems Inc. said yesterday. Emphasizing the rapid convergence of voice, data and video over a single network, John Chambers, Cisco president and chief executive, said telecom firms have no choice but to broaden their products and services. "This is an issue of who will survive in the new economy," he told about 160 industry analysts in San Francisco. Mr. Chambers laid out his vision of how the Information Age is going to affect businesses and consumers, comparing the impact to nothing less than that of the Industrial Revolution. Over the next five years, almost every electronic device will be connected to the Internet, most education will become Web-based, and we will witness the death of time and distance in the transmission of information, he said. Growth of e-commerce, currently forecast to reach $300-billion (US) by 2002, is vastly underestimated by a factor of five to ten fold, Mr. Chambers said. Rapid advances in the amount of information fiber optics can carry and a growing awareness of what the new technology can do for businesses and individuals are driving convergence of voice, data and video. "Our position is to drive the infrastructure," said Judy Estrin, Cisco's chief technology officer. "It's not the case that we woke up one day and said we've done data, let's do voice and video. The technology is allowing a new paradigm ... and this is allowing a whole new set of applications." For businesses, the leading new applications are universal messaging (the combining of email, voicemail and fax) and virtual call centers. Cisco has built an $8.5-billion (US) operation over the last 12 years providing the tools to manage traffic over computer networks. About 85% of the routers that direct Internet traffic are made by the company. Mr. Chambers said the industry is becoming too complicated for any one company to dominate. The key is forming partnerships. "Those companies that don't understand how to partner will be left behind because changes are happening too fast for any one company."