To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (15261 ) 11/10/1998 5:26:00 PM From: space cadet Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Michael, yes I know that some of the analysts are calling for a recovery soon. Only they were calling for a recovery every quarter for the last 4 quarters, as briefing has documented. So I take that with a grain of salt. But I know from personal experience that alot of these geniuses have a tendency to issue a buy when stocks in general are at their top, and to issue holds and sells when the stocks are at their bottom. We will see when these stocks really do start making big profits again. I remain skeptical. Of course, in this atmosphere, it really doesn't matter when or if it ever occurs, you just buy and buy and it goes up and up. I should have gotten in anyway despite my skepticism. However, I think the rally in the semi-eqpt stocks is largely over- they doubled or tripled and now are resting. Clearly the momentum traders have all headed over to the internet stocks. Everything about them shouts out to me that we are making a top here based on this absurdity. I mean oh my god, look at ebay. I hope no-one here was caught short on that one. One thing that I think will cause these stocks to fall dramatically is that it is the mo-mo players causing them lately to go up so much (along with short covering of course). The mo-mo guys will turn right around and short these stocks near the top as they don't "believe" in these stocks like all these 20 something employees and fans of these companies. I expect most all these companies, except aol and yhoo to be cut in half eventually. Of course, that will still leave them dramatically higher than they were quite recently but it's a pretty big fall nonetheless. Incidentally at the rate these stocks are going, perhaps they will end up buying the traditional media companies instead of visa versa. Pretty interesting to compare their market cap with some of the famous American stalwarts who have been around for decades, such as gm, ford, dis, etc. And the truly frightening thing is: Greenspan hasn't even lowered rates yet this month. Will aol be bigger than dis by month end if he does?
