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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kurthend who wrote (2755)	11/10/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Kurt, Thanks! What an incredible transcription! Well, 14 months ago I wrote a detailed article on the coming flip chip revolution for the Lonestar Growth Investor. You can in fact still find it in the archived articles at members.aol.com Well judging from what was aid on the conference call flip chips are going to make a very large impact upon INVX's bottom line this fiscal year jumping to over 50% of their revenues! Gang what we have here is a "wolf in sheep's clothing". After reviewing your excellent notes Kurt, I believe that INVX has transformed itself from a dd maker into a full-fledged ECM- and I need not tell you what that means. Just look at SCI, FLEX, SLR, DIIG, and JBL. These stocks all have 25-30% revenue growth rates moving forward.... I am really, really impressed by INVX's Management. If you all read this Thread, then my hat is off to you- a tremendous job done! BTW Kurt MBGA's refer to "Micro Ball Grid Arrays"- those are the bumps by which flip chips are attached to the motherboard and thus no leads are necessary.... Flip chips as previously noted are critical in the drive toward minitiarization of all consumer electronic components... Also I bet (as I have mentioned before here) that INVX studied or will study two other flip chip makers , SFLX and AFLX carefully as potential acquisition partners.... Sincerely, Doug F.

To: Kurthend who wrote (2755)	11/13/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: dlc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Kurt, nice job on the cc notes. I thought I would put in my two cents. I really like this company, its management, and its technology. Having said that, I think they have a tough year ahead of them. HTCH is the clear winner in the current design cycle for advanced lead wires in hard drives. INVX has a product that may be competitive (FSA) but it is not in volume production and I don't know of any design wins for any new HD programs. I believe that they are at least 6 months away from even knowing if they are going to get a big chunk of this market. They still have the lions share of the standard wire market but that market is shrinking. I also think the potential for flip chip packaging is huge. Unfortunately, there are more and much larger players in this field than in lead wires. The 3M's of the world are not going to sit around while little INVX takes the packaging market away from them. Can INVX succeed in the flip chip market? I certainly hope so. But I think it will be at least a year before we know how this market develops. In the meantime INVX does not have any real leading edge products that set them apart from the competition. Iam not down on INVX. I hope they do well. I just think the flip chip market is going to be a lot more competitive than the lead wire market, and they may be overstating their potential to capture a part of it. As much as I would like to buy INVX, I think the stock might be dead money for the better part of a year. Even management said that visibility was poor. I think until they get some big design wins for FSA (6 months out), or until they ramp up the flip chip products (6 months to a year out), the stock has nowhere to go.

To: Kurthend who wrote (2755)	11/13/1998 4:34:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Respond to of 3029

<PS Mark, while you are sunning yourself down-under on the beach tomorrow, I will listen in on the GMGC CC. I will post what I hear.> Actually, it's raining today, but sunning will come soon enough. Getting settled is quite a job, but it gets easier as time goes. So, I'm a traitor. Hmmm. Well, I think the outlook for wires is bleak, and they are not winning as many customers as I would like. FSA will have to do well, but they say it's 3 quarters off if I understand you well? CP will save the day if they don't get beaten to the punch by 3M or another heavy competitor. As far as their market share for HIF, they do compete against #M and Read Rite, and probably a few others. They hold 50% of that market probably, and TSA, CIS and CAPS based connects are probably not included in the figure. Sort of sounds like they have a new customer for FSA, but it was unclear. Are they qualifying, or qualified? Anyway, it does take time to get from qualification to production volumes. Traitor, maybe. I sold all my INVX shares. I did buy Hutchinson, but took a profit way too early because I was traveling at this time and was scared of a bad report. Looks like they said all the right things. They will be a tough competitor, and so will all the others. The days of INVX being a dominant supplier are over and they will never come again. They must develop new businesses. That is yet to be seen, but they are a pretty clever bunch and have a good shot at it. Regards, Mark