To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15086 ) 11/10/1998 7:44:00 PM From: WTSherman Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
Hi Michelle, I'm neither long nor short YAHOO so I may qualify as an objective observer... Your points about Web shopping are well taken, but, I do think there are some serious flaws in the theory. First, for common household goods that are repetitively purchased(food, household products, personal products) there does seem to be a good superficial logic to buying them over the web. But, if you think about it, its not so obvious. For example, purchasing goods for delivery from a warehouse will require people to plan their purchases because of the delivery time involved. Most folks just don't plan that well. To sit down and decide what they need starting next week isn't something that most people do or have the time to do. I'm not convinced its going to happen. If the source is closer at hand and able to deliver more quickly there's the issue of human labor. What's the cost to a store to pick out and deliver the $100 of goods someone might buy at a supermarket? $20? $15? I don't know, but, I doubt thats its going to add up to a LOWER COST for the goods to the consumer due to any sort of discounting. Instead it will have to be a convenience value that drives the purchase. Also, while packaged goods may be predictable, will people buy meats or fresh veggies without seeming them first? I doubt that, too. Most people are much too used to buying those kinds of items, after inspecting them. IMO, the big use of web shopping will be for items that are relatively expensive, but, to which stores add no extra value. Being able to shop for the absolutely lowest possible price, on-line, is an ideal way to buy items like cameras, refrigerators, etc. and for lower cost items like books, CD's, etc. I can also readily see online purchasing taking over the catalogue business very quickly, especially once the bandwidth/speed issues to the home are improved or resolved. After all, what's the difference between buying from the LL BEAN catalogue or the Land's End book and buying off of their web sites? Right now its speed and habit that keeps those things going. But, the cost savings by moving purchasers to the web(and not having to print those VERY expensive catalogues) is compelling. Well, went on much longer than I intended. Whatever happens, the craze in 'net stocks is just that...a craze. Imagining that YAHOO or AMAZON will ever, EVER, justify their market caps is laughable. If the web becomes as big a place to buy as these valuations would imply, and advertising becomes as powerful on the web as it is on TV, then there will be lots more(there's lots now, I know) competitors to deal with. After all, barriers to entry are pretty low. Just a few thoughts...