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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31684)	11/11/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Cash, Dips and the long haul... & Carvillesque Spin Control ... hmmm; How did I get the ''Raging Bull'' Hat here of late and become the lightning rod for the lunatic fringe ? ****************************************************************************** << Wed Nov 4 ..."When there is no rhyme or reason - don't fight it; go with the flow, but be ready to exit at a moments notice... I'll take on the downside of the worst case scenario for an active trader here - getting caught in even a 10% 1 1/2 - 2-day blowoff - as long as we are on a run like this - with no end in sight; I see no reason to not ride this train for now; but profit taking will be key here shortly. On that I have no arguement. But, I see the ability to cherry pick the trends here.''>> ************************************************************************** << Thrs Nov 5 ...RGinPG....it's getting interesting now - opportunities both ways.. This is where it gets interesting; I did sell to protect some small gains today on SGO APC KEG; see these going lower here; protecting small gains. In my trading portfolio - I do not hold ANY frontrunners (RIG RON WFT) just the ''dogs of the patch'' laggards like PKD OMNI TCMS HLX RRC WG - an odd mishmash of stocks that haven't generally reached their prior Sept highs and haven't bounced here as yet. I think their downside is limited. But - the ''Sell on a moments notice'' may have just arrived for those that made their move;>> *************************************************************************** << Fri Nov. 6th ..."Cash is such a warm, soft, fuzzy place to be.... PS - there are some PE valuations that are too high; DRQ & CDIS flew of late, but then we have VTS @ PE of 6 and a few other anomalies that are still solid buys, even at todays prices; not many - but they are out there...''>> ***************************************************************************** I don't mind being a lightning rod for the irrational exuberance of a few fringe, End of the World Extremists. I imagine if we ever have another depression, or a nuclear winter in the next millenium; someone 200 years from now can then archive my ''friends'' posts on SI and and then he can trully be the Nostradamus of the 20th Century - having called the 2nd great depression 200 years in advance <VBG> ! Amazing how the aggitators, apparently haven't even read anything I've said in months... I have continually said I think that the overall market is extremely over valued, but some sectors are extremely undervalued etc. I think one of the aggitators has forever painted himself into a corner; 'nuff said about him. Concerning the subject of ''the lunatic fringe''; I think most know one - when they see one... I have never had a problem with acknowledging my shortfalls, I did lead the charge vocally last May in averaging down into the ''June Swoon''; and I lost a substantial amount of money. I should have plugged into the equation, the advice from a few experienced posters who actually ''lived'' through the prior Oilpatch Wars... Big Dog has been a tremendous stabilizing force here... The ''Dogfather'' of the 'patch; sometimes playing Consigliere, sometimes Referee, sometimes agreeeing - sometimes disagreeeing... However, what I did do; which I think may separate me from many investors - (and maybe there is even a lesson that others can learn from here) is I learned from my mistakes. I did not run from the Oilpatch, forever chastising them, hating them, spewing on them; as if it was ''their'' fault... No, I still saw the longterm fundamental opportunity and decided through necessity; to take what the ''market'' would give me here. I became an active trader through necessity. I actively traded, sometimes very aggressively and fought my way back trade by trade. With the first major blowoff, simultaneous to the overall market selloff; I bought heavilly into the end of August decline. I profited handsomely as I bought heavilly on margin there and many stocks spiked 30-40-60 %. However, again I failed to take some chips off the table quickly enough and lost much of my gain. On the 2nd blowoff in the Oilpatch in October, I again bought heavilly into the bottom ; with a few plays on margin. Only this time, I learned from my prior mistakes. I took many of the chips off the table on the way up, per my prior posts. Some profits I may have taken a little early; but my main intention was that once again, I had very substantial gains - now equal to my June lossses; and I was NOT going to lose my profits again; hence the above posts... Cash and a large position in only the sector laggards (not holding the Mo-Mo's here) of late, buying them on 1-2 day blowoffs only. I also greatly diversified my portfolio; many small cap S&L stocks under book value without any Hedge Fune/International exposure, a little tech and some small cap value stocks. My losses yesterday were under 1 1/2% as the Oilpatch is not a major part of my portfolio (for now); but I fortunately have 35% cash and the margin tool - which I will use again if we have another major retracement from here. We are in a market where anyone buying the dips coming here, or that we had at the end of Aug or in Oct are going to profit very handsomely in the longterm; I think substantially outperforming the overall market longterm. We also have one of the great ''trading range'' opportunities here. One can make a living just trading stocks like RON. Also, one can do well shorting on these turns here, if one is nimble and gets out early - as shorting into another Fed Cut accompanied by Internatinal Cuts, Japanese Banking Reform, Substantial moves in the Yen from 150 to 120 and with the discrepancies on the Crude Oil supply numbers, another OPEC meeting ( near simultaneous to a Fed meeting) and with a crisis brewing in Iraq; I just see cash as a much safer place than being short here... obviously; opportunities for all here. Long, short or cash - if one can execute on a timely basis, it is possible to profit on any or all of these strategies. Fortunately, or unfortunately the record is out there on a few posters ''actual'' calls...and their execution, or lack there of... I rest my case.