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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (5270)	11/11/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 78748

James, It's getting interesting. On almost every thread I read, investors are moving to cash. I sold down Monday. After a couple of buys that went thru late yesterday, I am 50% cash for the first time in a year. The general sentiment is the market being driven by 'false optimism' because there has been no major bad news event in the last few weeks. FWIW, Ron

To: James Clarke who wrote (5270)	11/11/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Well James I may be in trouble, once again I disagree with you and am fully invested. I agree that the nifty fifty is frothy. But the entire universe below that is looking awfully cheap to me in relative terms, ESpecially stuff like Deswell and the semiconductor stocks many are close to cash or book. All the energy and oil drillers are cheap historically, the natural resource stocks, many of the small caps. There is optimism for a recovery in Asia and that will lift the tech stocks as they move into a new cycle. Lastly the Macro factors have shifted. With the dollar decline and increase in yields, buying long term bonds is no longer a can't lose proposition so there will be lots of money moving back into equities. Also it is that tax shelter time of year so there will be lots of money flowing into sundry IRA's and SEPs between now and APril. My scenario is for a steady rise in the market until April, at which point we may see declines. JMHO. I also agree with you about the internet stocks, Netscape excepted. I don't see how the cash flow generated could possibly justify even half of most of these prices, but they make excellent trading vehicles. It seems to be similar to those y2K stocks but with longer legs. BTW Is the market drops precipitously I would not expect real estate prices to hold up, especially in the NY area.

To: James Clarke who wrote (5270)	11/12/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Cary Chubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

James, Re: "How the %$&* can you pay 25x a declining earnings stream for the S&P? I don't care what interest rates are." Don't...look for bargains. Re: "But I did put my cash to work. On Sunday I bought my dream house with the money I took out of the market in the spring and summer. That'll keep me disciplined. Nothing like having no money to keep you from buying stocks. I figured if I can buy a house now at 7% interest rates, do it." This strategy I don't understand. In two real estate markets I'm familiar with, San Francisco and Chicago, prices of single family homes have exploded in the last two years. The acceleration in Chicago, usually a very stable market, is unlike any I've ever seen. If you are forecasting a severe downturn in the stock market do you really believe there will not be a corresponding downturn in highly leveraged single family home prices? Cary Chubin