Did someone say 99, the year of the application?
November 11, 1998
Changing consumer demands will erode the dominance of the ubiquitous phone, TV, and PC. According to a recent Report from Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq:FORR), the future of consumer devices lies in smart packs -- bundles of devices and services that better meet consumer needs. Forrester believes smart packs will supplant traditional consumer technologies by combining intuitive devices with personal Internet content.
Today's leading consumer electronics frustrate users because they haven't evolved along with consumers' expectations. The big three -- TVs, phones, and PCs -- can't share basic data, can't deliver the right content at the right time, and add to the complexity of consumers' lives. Meanwhile, vendor attempts to converge consumer devices have resulted in expensive products that lack a clear, compelling utility.
"To deliver what consumers want -- focused utility, personalized context, immediate access, simple operation, and affordability -- vendors will need to rethink their consumer electronic offerings," said Tom Rhinelander, analyst in Forrester's People & Technology Strategies service. "Only new combinations of easy-to-use devices and personalized services can meet consumers' demands for the right content at the right place at the right time. "
To succeed, vendors will need to build affordable devices that are simple to use and deliver personalized digital content anywhere, anytime. Powerful, low-cost microprocessors and network connections via phone lines and wireless technologies will provide the means to deliver and process a wide range of content, while synchronization, personalization, and filtering software will keep the information up-to-date and tailored to each individual's needs. As these devices evolve, more and more content will become available in standard formats, including IP-enabled voice and video.
The smart pack revolution will begin in 1999, as enhancements to existing devices and innovative new products begin to expose consumers' frustrations with existing phones, televisions, and PCs. Over the next four years, consumer electronics giants, PC vendors, and service providers will grapple with new business models, a proliferation of creative new products, and a decline in traditional stand-alone device sales.
By 2004, smart pack devices will be indistinguishable from their accompanying service offerings. Directory phones that link to personal and public address books and deliver information like movie listings via the Internet will be commonplace. All-purpose digital displays and digital cable services will blur the distinctions between televisions and PCs, while application-specific products like digital checkbooks and electronic family calendars steal market share from low-cost PCs. A market shift toward leases will accelerate the adoption of smart pack devices and fundamentally change the consumer technology landscape.
"The adoption of smart devices that provide anytime, anywhere access to all kinds of information will have unforeseen social implications," added Rhinelander. "Interpersonal relationships will be changed by the availability of address books and calendars that are always up-to-date and can't be lost. And consumers will face privacy issues with every interaction. A smart pack society will not quite look like the Jetsons."
Forrester Research, Inc., is a leading independent research firm offering products and services that help its clients assess the effects of technology on their businesses. Forrester provides analysis and insight into a broad range of technology areas such as new media, computing, software, networking, telecommunications, and the Internet, and it projects how technology trends will affect businesses, consumers, and society. Forrester's European Research Center, located in Amsterdam, Netherlands, brings the company's unique perspective to new media developments in Europe. Additional information about Forrester Research can be found on the Web at www.forrester.com.
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