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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bosco who wrote (2872)11/11/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Crossy  Respond to of 37387
 
Hi Bosco,
thanks for Your reply. You are right - BB are dangerous. I noticed how long they needed to recoup the losses from AFC. While DOW took 1 month and the NAZ took 2,5 months, BB stocks took 5-7 months to fully recover. You have to be very bold if You move in that area. In fact, I really can understand Your motivations behind.

Regarding HICO, I think they should have something positive to show. Yes I do believe they will make it to the NASDAQ small cap section. On AMUT i have less info. However bailing out to limit risk always makes sense.

BTW: Cable rules !!

best regards
CROSSY



To: Bosco who wrote (2872)11/11/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Crossy  Respond to of 37387
 
Bosco,
no need to apologyze. After all I'm sitting in the glasshouse myself (for being "mentally" away almost 4 months.. <g>), so I rather not started throwing stones..

On the FA front I found some nice valuation plays in the boxmaker & server scenes. My email connection is not yet established (but my browser is), so I can't forward details, but let me post my overall conclusion here..

PSR (Price to Sales Ratio) LEader is Dell with PSR of 6. OK, they got a net margin of 10%. But 5% net margin should be attainable for others, too.

UIS .. Unisys. Company succesfully refocused on INTEL & X86 CPUs. This one year after claiming to "exit" this segment, what I criticized way back then. Well right now the stock is up nicely, but valuation-wise (PSR) it has room to $45-50. Right now at $27. This one did a masterful turnaround this year. My own sales projection for Q4/98 is $2.1 billion in sales. Company should be able to finally achieve AT LEAST a 5% net margin. If they deleverage their balance sheet they could even arrive at 8% net margin. Institutions already bought heavily. Looks good to me. PSR right now at 0,93. Final turnaround plus earnings play.

GTW .. also looks quite good. PSR at 1.25 and no debt ! My target on FA valuation is $80, up from present $57. Accelerating earnings play.

NCR ... PSR of 0.56. Didn't look at their balance sheet fully but stock looks also healthy to me. All I know, very little debt there is. Company growing in product as well as service sales. Earnings play. Now at $35. If earnings are growing along industry lines, room to $80.

2 Turnaround plays that are a bit more risky but still Nasdaq/NYSE:

SQNT - Seqent PSR of 0.44. Turnaround final achieved. Their edge are highend ccNUMA based on up to 64 Intel Xeon CPUs coupled in a non SMP multiprocessing architecture. Such a beast ikes out 86000 tPC benchmark units in the tpc-C test suite (Oracle testbed). Right now stock at $12. If turnaround is done, it could go to $30

DGN - Data General, PSR of 0.57. I would prefer SQNT over DGN. Balance sheet of SQNT looks better. Also the ratio of COG/Sales for product and service revenue looks more healthy for SQNT. Anyway, DGN still got some room to grow.

Apart from this. EBSC is looking better and better to me. I'm only waiting to leave PWAV and to join EBSC. This quarter looks ok, but the next should blow up expectations (January I mean)..

best regards
CROSSY



To: Bosco who wrote (2872)11/13/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: Crossy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 37387
 
Bosco & all,
got a new finding..

Oilfileld equipment. SLB (Schlumberger). Price: approx $52. The stock is about to rock IMHO. Chart got bottoming formation. Briefing.com ranks oilfields quite high..

best regards
CROSSY



To: Bosco who wrote (2872)11/18/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Crossy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 37387
 
Dear Bosco,
today seems to have been quite an exciting day on the board(s). You had a big event with HDS and I manged to get out of PWAV (stock) and HWP (warrants) right before they took a plunge. Wow - that was close, You have to be constantly on alert here..

Transferred my PWAV into TLTN. My HWP money I turned into AAN. This might interest You, since You told me You got into bigger banking companies after they took a plunge. AAN is one of the leading (Number 1 or 2) banks from the Netherlands, quite conservative in their operations. There are warrants traded in Europe in which I placed an order for tomorrow. I want to dabble on the "feel-good" factor, now that rates were cut (short and long - discount & overnite), Europe should profit indirectly. And banks should profit most of all. Apart from that will get rid of my OTC stocks, soon, too..

best regards
CROSSY