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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manohar kanuri who wrote (128)	11/11/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Respond to of 1989

Mano; I mentioned your suspicions to someone else, in a post earlier this week. I also mentioned that I agree with you. Your post to Stitch is the most articulate fundamental explanation for your case that I have seen, thus far, on this BB. The logic is very sound. It all comes back to the same thing. What is management doing? I don't think all of SEG's troubles can be blamed on a poor overall market situation and I have said so. Also, I don't see clear direction which would indicate a sound, fundamental business strategy yet. I also believe, that until we do we won't see Wall St. revaluate the stock. Right now I don't think they know how to put a value on the stock and the price is generous given SEG's current situation. This is despite its cash position and its position as a holding company. You can't grow a company by showing losses in your core business and I've said that too. In this bull market growth is what people will pay a premium for not shrinking market share and shrinking volume/revenue. The specialist has drawn the line in the sand at 30 so, it is pretty clear that Wall St. wants results and so do I. PHOTOMAN

To: manohar kanuri who wrote (128)	11/11/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

mano,thread; <<I don't see any clear signs yet which tell me that SEG is playing the game on its own terms. >> I agree. <<briefly, I think it has slipped to third place in the overall speech/voice league despite having the top spot in the dictation retail market.>> I would love to see the not-so-brief version as it doesn't square with what I understood, however, I am also not willing to give the Dragon holdings a lot of weight on SEG's balance sheet yet. I view it as a sort of young, green, tomatoe on the vine that deserves watching. <<The VRTS stake is a red-herring - if I want VRTS I will buy VRTS directly and not use it to rationalize holding SEG. >> I can't agree. I think it was a very wise play and a "red-herring" label seems too harsh. I like the market position that results and think if the two companies can operate to apply market leverage together it will pay large. But a very wise friend pointed out to me that SEG could never sell their holdings without driving the stock down and even the most optimistic valuation of SEG's position in VRTS should be reflected in a sliding decline in per share value. <<If I see the low-end/low-margin DD segment account for a lower percentage of SEG revenue that would be my first cue to think about jumping back in. >> Agreed again. SEG's near term hope is at the high end. I still like their relationship with EMC and their newest Cheetah drive. But I would not be jumping into SEG for now. In fact, I am disappointed at todays action, feeling that if it were going to jump the resistance line it would have on the tails of the INTC announcement. In any case I sold half of SEG at 29.25 today, and gifted part of it to my daughter. The rest went into a SEP to moulder. I believe in SEG long term, and though my trading on the stock over the last several months has yielded a slight profit, its clear that it is not a good short term trading vehicle for me. Others could be making fortunes on the stock, who knows. I have not read it's short term moves well. There is considerable euphoria in some circles again but I still sense some rugged days ahead. I also sense that it is time for some analysis of other sectors. I have long put off doing any thorough DD in medical stocks and I suspect there are some values, especially in distribution of services and diagnostic equipment. I am presently short KMAG at 7, and WDC at 14. I should have stayed long on RDRT and maybe KMAG for another point before turning. But am into the money on those trades so no complaints. I just cannot bring myself to a play on QNTM. I have a gut driven reaction to their model that I am sure Lawrence would sneer at. I ignored HTCH at my own peril in spite of sound dd from Z. Se la Vi. I may consider a re-entry if there is a point to do so. Took a long position on IDTC a couple of days ago and like a long term on it. Bought an internut flyer today, BBTK, to satisfy my crap shoot urges. I will be watching SEG closely for another entry point. I am still long VECO that will likely liquidate soon, and have a couple of core holdings in other tech stocks. Will continue to monitor semi - equip stocks. I completely missed the recent run-up but I think there will be re-entry point. I will be off line a lot over the next couple of days to finish a project then off for 6 days fishing. Wil check back i as time allows. Best, Stitch