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To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (579)11/11/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: mike mulhearn  Respond to of 939
 
The Daily Trouble - A review of a company whose stock price has been cut in half within the last year.
Sep 15, 1998

Navarre Co.
(Nasdaq:NAVR - news)
Phone: 612-535-8333
Website: navarre.com
Price (9/14/98): $3 1/4

HOW DID IT FIND TROUBLE?

Welcome to Navarre-land. It's the second falling star to the right, clear on through to mourning. Like Peter Pan, Navarre knows how to fly. It soared in May 1996, and went airborne again in April and July of this year. Investors have probably gotten used to these flights of fancy, which, like pixie dust, have faded all too soon.

Each time the rise has been tied not to the company's dry, yet steady media distributorship, but rather to its ever-growing presence on the Internet. Offline, Navarre plugs away at the low-margin business of stocking the CD shelves at your local Best Buy (NYSE:BBY - news) or one of the other 50,000 outlets it services.

Online, the company offers NetRadio, providing all the glittery Internet audio content that 150 proprietary channels can offer. Accepting the limitations of the hissy quality of Real Audio, you pick a genre and are treated to commercial-free tunes. I plugged into New Wave and was immediately whisked back to the 1980s. New Order was followed by vintage Depeche Mode that took us to Romeo Void's solitary hit, "Never Say Never."

Or was that "Never Say Navarre"? The most recent fall from grace came just last month when the stock soared on news that Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS - news) would be utilizing the company's software distributorship service at its online book site. In theory, the news should have had no effect on the company since Navarre was already a distributor to the offline locations. But, just like the aerial stint back in April -- with no news that time, just more Internet stock frenzy coattails -- the short-term flight was quick and turbulent.

But last month the shares were hooked even more wickedly than before because it came at a time when a huge private placement's lockout period had ended. Way too many sellers, and like Depeche Mode sings... "Everything counts in large amounts."

FINANCIAL FACTS

Minneapolis-based Navarre is a wholesale distributor of prerecorded music and commercial software. The company's accounts include CompUSA (NYSE:CPU - news) , Barnes & Noble, and Viacom's (ASE: VIA) Blockbuster Music.

Navarre also owns NetRadio, a popular Internet site featuring different music and infotainment channels. In June, the company launched cdpoint.com and softwarepoint.com to sell music and software titles online.

Income Statement
12-month sales: $210.1 million
12-month income: $0.12 million
12-month EPS: ($0.04)*
Profit Margin: N/A
Market Cap: $39.7 million
(* Includes payment of dividends on Class A shares.)

Balance Sheet
Cash: $0.03 million
Current Assets: $94.1 million
Current Liabilities: $74.8million
Long-term Debt: $0.2 million

Ratios
Price-to-earnings: N/A
Price-to-sales: 0.19

HOW COULD YOU HAVE SEEN IT COMING?

Some companies Navarre learn. In May, the company was running low on funds so it issued a $20 million private placement. The fact that it was dilutive would be an understatement. The deal consisted of 7.6 million shares issued at $2 5/8 and 7.6 million warrants exercisable at $3 1/2.

The offering might have seemed fathomable earlier in the year when the stock was trading barely above two bucks a share. However, since the shares had hit $12 3/4 the month before, Navarre's timing couldn't have been worse. The logical solution, which was to produce working capital by spinning off the pure Internet glitz of NetRadio, did not occur to the company until late July. Too little, too late. By then the damage was done and the dilution had flooded the stock.

The placement buyers, which included more than a dozen individual investors, pension funds, and even American Gramophone (a long-time supplier to Navarre), simply had one restriction before cashing in on their bounty -- they had to wait until the end of June to begin selling off their respective stakes.

So, just nine days into July, when news that Barnes & Noble's website would begin doing what the brick and mortar stores were already doing, the run-up into the pre-teens was destined to falter.

With the offering shares having appreciated many times over, it was clear that the selling would kill off any rally. The placement shares and warrants represented twice as many as all of the shares outstanding at the time. Any fundamental improvements -- and there would be plenty for Navarre -- would be greeted like a salmon trying to swim upstream as the deluge rained down.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

Over time, history may forgive and forget. With every passing day it seems that there will be less of the private placement players fueling that pent-up selling demand. That's a good thing because beyond the ill-advised offering there is little not to like in Navarre.

The company turned a profit last quarter, and this despite the startup costs in setting up CDPoint and SoftwarePoint, which were launched two weeks apart in the month of June. Navarre calls the strategy "c-commerce," the "c" standing for content-enabled. Drawing 20 million page hits a month and 3 million audio listens, the company has the perfect magnet to draw music fans to consider buying the selections they are hearing directly from Navarre.

On July 27, the company announced that it would be spinning off NetRadio, and coming on the heels of the successful debut of Broadcast.com (Nasdaq:BCST - news) , demand should be healthy for the popular website. It's a shame that the private placement has sandbagged the stock's performance. Who knows how high the stock would be trading today if the 7.6 million shares and 7.6 million warrants at rock bottom conversion prices had never come about -- certainly higher than the $20 million in proceeds generated from the deal.

In the meantime, new deals are creating rallies that may eventually wear out the selling supply. Last month the company announced that it would be opening turnkey DVD departments at all 162 CompUSA stores. NetRadio's presence continues to grow as now it is being bundled on the latest Packard Bell and NEC personal computers. And you can't discount that if Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN - news) had a great run after announcing it would expand beyond selling books, then the company helping barnesandnoble.com do the same thing also deserves some sustained Wall Street attention.

If and when the NetRadio division becomes a publicly traded entity, the valuation may work wonders to bring back the strength into the shares of Navarre -- except this time it may be packing a jet engine instead of pixie dust to remain airborne.

-Rick Aristotle Munarriz
(tmfedible@aol.com



To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (579)11/12/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Dr. Harvey  Respond to of 939
 
Jeff, news is out on the stock FTRK that I have posted here before about. According the their press they just acquired an additional $6,000,000 in sales,

FutureTrak International Set to Acquire Millennium Publications Inc.

POMPANO BEACH, Fla., Nov. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- FutureTrak
International,
Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: FTRK) has agreed to enter into a formal
binding
agreement to acquire Millennium Publications Inc., according to a joint
announcement by the two companies today.
Florida-based FutureTrak International will maintain its current
headquarters and operate with two branches, Millennium to remain in
Los Angeles.

The planned acquisition is expected to be completed during the
fourth quarter, subject to normal regulatory approvals.

Under terms of the agreement, FutureTrak will acquire 100% of
Millennium Publications, which is expected to generate in excess of $6
million in annual revenue. Millennium Publications Inc. will operate as a
subsidiary of FutureTrak International, Inc.

Millennium Publications generates a number of key magazines and
books
covering all aspects of the video gaming industry, including video
consoles and cutting-edge PC hardware and software. Their monthly
publication, Gamers' Republic (http://www.gamersrepublic.com),
provides both the casual reader and insatiable gaming devotee with a
wealth of gaming information includingextensive features, in-depth
interviews, expert and unbiased reviews and the latest news from
around the world. The magazine has something for everyone
and contains some of the best, most exciting graphics imaginable.
Millennium also produces a number of full-color official strategy
guides specifically covering systems and games from Sony(TM),
Sega(TM), and Nintendo(TM). Gamersrepublic.com/Millennium
Publications On-Line, may be the most popular gaming web site to
ever grace the Internet, a site that every gaming enthusiast will visit
every day to read the latest buzz, chat with other "gamers," and check
out the latest games in action.

The companies are also developing interactive solutions for this
devoted industry that will offer unprecedented standards in both
entertainment and information.

"This acquisition is in line with our continuing plans for bringing
innovative solutions to the marketplace. The gaming industry is not
only an exciting marketplace, but full of revenue potential," said Steve
Remondini, president of FutureTrak.

"Providing content, devices, and data services
allows us the opportunity to interface technologies and give the
customer the best functionality for the best price," he added.

For further information contact FutureTrak International, Inc.,
futuretrak.com, 3635 Park Central Blvd. North, Pompano
Beach, FL 33064, Toll Free: 888-752-3474.

Certain statements in this release and the company's financial
projections that are not historical fact constitute "forward-looking
information." Such forward-looking information involves known and
unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the
actual results of the Company to be materially different from results
expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Such risks,
uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: customer
demand not meeting expectations; lack of consistent
supply of materials; lack of adequate distribution markets; and inability
to meet customer demand.

SOURCE FutureTrak International, Inc.
Web Site: futuretrak.com

------

Previous




To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (579)11/13/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: mike mulhearn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 939
 
Wow, NAVR took a wild ride today. When Net Radio IPO comes out, I think it's going to get really wild. IMO



To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (579)11/13/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: mike mulhearn  Respond to of 939
 
- I N D U S T R Y

November 11, 1998
NetRadio wants you to whistle while you work
Matthew Broersma - ZDNN

Back in November of 1995, NetRadio Network was one of the first companies to found a business plan on an emerging technology called streaming media -- quick audio, and even video, over the Internet.

Today, as NetRadio makes plans for a public offering of stock, it has plenty of company in the streaming-media market. More than 1,700 ordinary radio stations are streaming their music live over the Net, according to Broadcast.com, which aggregates audio and video content.

A number of companies are also, like NetRadio, putting together their own custom Internet radio networks -- the most recent being Rolling Stone Network.

So what's the outlook for such Internet radio stations, which depend on advertising and e-commerce to support their free music and information?

NetRadio's point of view is, understandably perhaps, that the Internet is going to put the "old media" of radio broadcasters out to pasture.

"1999 is going to be the year when Internet radio emerges from the shadows into the mainstream," said NetRadio spokesman Jan Andersen. "This could become a truly mass medium ... and when that happens, radio as we know it will cease to exist."

Services such as NetRadio, Imagine Radio, Rolling Stone Radio, Broadcast.com and Spinner.com offer a selection of genre-oriented stations available over a streaming-media player, which is now included with most new PCs and browsers.

Some also let users "program" their own stations by entering their favorite artists. This practice has come under attack by the recording industry, however, which charges the practice imitates a jukebox full of pirated recordings.

On the one hand, the audience for Internet radio is growing -- though mostly in the workplace. (Who wants to turn on a computer to listen to music at home?)

Andersen, like most Internet radio executives, allows that the work audience is "the biggest market, definitely ... the bulk of our traffic is from 9 to 5."

Industry analysts point out that the work audience can't be reached by any conventional audiovisual medium, which could make streaming media valuable to advertisers.

New demographic
"This is a completely new demographic," said analyst Seema Williams of Forrester Research, speaking at the Streaming Media '98 conference this week. "Before, audiences went completely dark from 9 to 5."

Virtual radio ads could be an attractive buy in other ways, as well. Andersen points out that the ads inserted into NetRadio programming are linked to a "buy" function on NetRadio's site, letting users pick up the CD they've been listening to. NetRadio runs its own stores selling CDs and software.

"The difference is immediacy," Andersen said. "It's mind-boggling to me that advertisers pay billions of dollars a year to local radio stations without the listeners being able to do anything to respond. It's all based on the customer going into a grocery store next week and buying a six-pack of Coke instead of Pepsi."

On the other hand, there's no guarantee advertisers will flock to pay for airtime on an upstart medium such as Internet radio. NetRadio claims near 1 million for its monthly listener base, but that's spread over more than 100 "channels".

And while the Internet's greatest asset is its global availability, analysts say one of the draws of local-radio advertising is its geographic specificity, with the implied demographic information.

Web radio a mass medium
Andersen could not discuss the company's financial information while the company is in the "quiet period" it legally must observe before going public.

The dependency on the workplace audience could also turn into a problem if Internet tunes do, as NetRadio hopes, become a mass medium.

Corporate IT officers are already complaining about the bandwidth being used up by streaming media, and the productivity lost as workers tune into the latest video of the Clinton scandal.

In the mean time, all the interest in Internet audio seems to be a harbinger of good things for RealNetworks. The Seattle, Wash.-based company, headed by former Microsoft executive Rob Glaser, makes the industry-leading streaming media platform, RealMedia.

Andersen said that upwards of 85 percent of his company's audience uses RealMedia players, rather than the competing Windows Media Player from Microsoft Corp. That figure is in line with RealNetworks' estimates of its own market share in the streaming media player business.

NetShow gaining?
He shrugged off studies that show NetShow servers gaining market share from RealMedia servers, pointing out that most of the NetShow servers are being used to stream the RealMedia format.

Microsoft licensed an older version of RealMedia for its servers.

"Where it comes to the streaming media platform that will dominate, I've got news for you," Andersen said. "It sits in Seattle and it's called Rob Glaser."

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