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To: umbro who wrote (25713)	11/11/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

THE PRODUCT LINE Do you ICQ? By Rafe Needleman The Red Herring magazine November 1998 There's a new form of electronic communication, one that millions of people are using but that the business community is only now beginning to embrace. It's time we took a more serious look at Internet instant messaging software (also known as "buddy list" and paging software). In case you're not familiar with IM, here's what you're missing: Internet instant messaging lets you send off immediate text messages. You program your system with your list of contacts, and it tells you whether they are online and running their IM software. If they are online, you can zap them a quick note and they receive it immediately. If they reply, you can continue conversing in a text box on your desktop that displays the entire exchange. You get the clarity of text-based communications (as in email), the immediacy of a phone call, and the benefit of knowing that the recipient is actually present to take your message. THEY LAUGHED AT CHAT, TOO This type of messaging does not lend itself to serious communication. Nonetheless, in a business setting IM software can be incredibly useful. Want to pop over to a coworker's office in the next building for a quick consult? With IM software you don't have to wait for the email lag or call to see if they're there--your software tells you; send the message "got a sec for a mtg?" and in ten seconds you have a reply. Very efficient. There are about a half-dozen companies making IM software. And the big dogs are most definitely in the game. Yahoo has its own. Microsoft has made a few attempts to get into this space, but so far without much success. America Online has a program called AOL Instant Messenger (AIM), which Netscape also distributes. But the best instant messenger is ICQ, from a small Israeli company called Mirabilis. AOL acquired Mirabilis in June, even though it already had its own solid Internet instant messenger. Why? Well, ICQ does have the best mix of features and ease of use in this market. But that's almost coincidental. ICQ's phenomenal user base is what makes it the winner. ICQ was the first independently owned Internet-based instant messenger. Distributed on download sites all over the Net, ICQ has picked up 16 million users, about half of which have actually logged on in the last 30 days, according to Mirabilis. ICQ won its position with the familiar Netscape distribution model--giving the product away. Unfortunately, unlike Netscape's browser, ICQ is not based on a standard (there is, to date, no IM analog to HTML); users of ICQ can't communicate with people on AOL's AIM, Yahoo Pager, or the other products in this space. This is a key weakness. When somebody finally manages to set up an IM standard--when ICQ, AIM, Microsoft, and Yahoo users can all chat with each other--then the user base will explode, and at the same time the established IM software market could collapse. COMMUNITY VALUE I can certainly understand why ICQ isn't pushing for standards right now: the product's key advantage, as I said, is not its feature set but the community. If that community became available to anybody (say, Microsoft) who could pony up a few programmers and a good distribution channel, the whole competitive picture of this market would change. And then there's the revenue model. Mirabilis made money only when it sold out to AOL. AOL values ICQ because it now owns 16 million high-end users. And once there's a standard, you can be pretty sure that Microsoft will fold instant messaging into one of its free suites (or the OS) the way it did with its browser, email application, and news reader. I remain a big fan of this product space, but I think we're nowhere near the endgame for this market. Yes, ICQ is the best instant messenger today, and yes, it has the most users. But future success in this market may be built on different foundations.

To: umbro who wrote (25713)	11/11/1998 7:56:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

GF<Options Study for: NOV put break-even: 118.67 OI = 18644 VOL = 5406 call break-even: 130.23 OI = 21623 VOL = 4888 max. pain: 119.95 R = 0.9 R = 1.1> So it now appears all Nov and Dec puts are history. Well, except for the lucky that have come in @ the right time. I think that Nov/Dec $140 put, was a great put, but I don't know what the premium was. Ps, Actually a better bet would be to go out until next summer.

To: umbro who wrote (25713)	11/12/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options report for 11/12/98 AMZN price: 131.000 Options Study for: NOV put break-even: 121.18 OI = 19031 VOL = 3432 call break-even: 133.03 OI = 22108 VOL = 2647 max. pain: 120.00 R = 0.9 R = 1.3 Options Study for: DEC put break-even: 113.09 OI = 3393 VOL = 839 call break-even: 142.49 OI = 3640 VOL = 395 max. pain: 125.00 R = 0.9 R = 2.1 Options Study for: JAN put break-even: 104.11 OI = 5118 VOL = 145 call break-even: 146.91 OI = 8676 VOL = 237 max. pain: 100.01 R = 0.6 R = 0.6 Options Study for: APR put break-even: 98.14 OI = 2535 VOL = 11 call break-even: 157.09 OI = 2614 VOL = 68 max. pain: 125.00 R = 1.0 R = 0.2 net long/short: 0.70 mil. i.v. for NOV = 0.70 i.v. for DEC = 0.85 i.v. for JAN = 0.89 i.v. for APR = 0.76 Implied vols. stayed steady, increasing a bit in the Dec/Jan options, and dropping in the April options. The strategy mentioned yesterday, off buying a straddle and fading the opening move (dumping the puts), and then going the other way (holding the calls) would've probably netted about $1 on a $13 position.