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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (31723)	11/12/1998 12:26:00 AM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 95453

<<The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Western world's energy watchdog, said in its recent oil market report that commercial stocks in Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries were 172 million barrels higher at end September than the same time last year.>> O.K., I don't get it again. The end of September was 1 1/3 months ago. Since when does data this old mean anything ?? From the IEA's own numbers in the WSJ on Tuesday, there is around a 2.5 mbpd drawdown of crude oil stocks. That means that the 172 million barrels surplus in storage could be only 72 million barrels now if the 1997 level was the same for the end of September and middle of November. So we are a month or earlier away from no surplus at all compared to 1997. Or is the game that once we achieve 1997 levels, 1997 levels will be deemed "too high" even though oil was trading over $20 a barrel back then??? And Since the IEA can't find oil that it counts, how do we know 172 million barrels is a good number ??? What this basically tells me is there is no "glut" of oil and that oil prices are depressed because everybody thinks they should be, just like internet stocks always go up because everybody thinks they should. I guess that since 1998 oil company earnings have already been trashed, most oil companies aren't complaining about the bad IEA numbers because it gives them more time to buy up small oil companies for less money.