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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fortinwit who wrote (26159)	11/11/1998 7:31:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Fortinwit, re track records: please read the August '97 Reuters stories below for some earnings predictions. Earnings for '98 are $1.10 and for '99 $ 0.60 consensus. quote.yahoo.com Example: CS First Boston said it raised its earnings estimates on APPLIED MATERIALS INC. to $2.70 a share from $2.51 a share for 1997. It raised the 1998 estimate to $4.23* a share from $3.64 a share.* Emphasis added. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) Semiconductor equipment stocks rallied after APPLIED MATERIALS reported 3Q EPS of $0.77, which was well above analyst's expectations of $0.68. The company also reported bookings of $1.24 billion, an increase of 22.5% from last year, and said that gross margins expanded to 47.2%. Separately, the company announced a trio of deals worth more than $235 million. Investors saw this as proof that the sector is recovering nicely from the downturn experienced last year. Investor bid up KLA TENCOR CORP, LAM RESEARCH CORP, TERADYNE INC, and NOVELLUS SYSTEMS INC. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) CS First Boston said it raised its earnings estimates on APPLIED MATERIALS INC. to $2.70 a share from $2.51 a share for 1997. It raised the 1998 estimate to $4.23 a share from $3.64 a share. Applied Material, the biggest manufacturing of chip making equipment, posted 3Q profit from operations of $0.77 a share, beating analysts' estimates of $0.68 a share. Meanwhile, Lehman Brothers said it raised its fiscal 1997 estimate to $2.71 a share from $2.50 a share. (Reuters 10:02 AM ET 08/13/97) Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) Alex. Brown said it upgraded APPLIED MATERIALS INC. to buy from market perform. After the market closed Tuesday, Applied Materials posted third-quarter profit from operations of $0.77 a share, beating Wall Street estimates of $0.68 a share. Meanwhile, Salomon Brothers said it upgraded Applied to strong buy from hold. (Reuters 11:43 AM ET 08/13/97) Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) APPLIED MATERIALS INC gained market share from competitors during its recently completed 3Q, CEO James Morgan said on cable T.V. network CNBC. "What we are seeing is clear market share gains in every product area," Morgan said. He said the industry move to smaller and faster microchips, such as those 0.25 micron and below, helped propel earnings. The company saw its largest sales quarter ever in the United States and sales in the Asia Pacific region continued to grow. Applied Materials will focus on growing internal operations and will use acquisitions selectively, Morgan said. (Reuters 04:20 PM ET 08/13/97) Gottfried

To: Fortinwit who wrote (26159)	11/11/1998 7:33:00 PM
From: hdr	Respond to of 70976

Fortinwit, thanks for the reality check. Even with SIA predections it will be Spring '00 before we get back to the '97 level of demand and as I recall there was more capacity than necessary at that level. Until fabs upgrade to the next level there appears no need to expand the supply side for several quarters. hdr

To: Fortinwit who wrote (26159)	11/11/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

F: You are right to be skeptical about those forecasts. They are just noise. Now the media is throwing it on top of the INTC positive preannounce and it could be like putting the last drop of gasoline on a fire. It seems the big boys have been buying on the AEA anecdotal evidence of a turnaround. ASMLF, through Maris, said it was getting an uptick in business along what CYMI stated in their cc. But he was not too optimistic although that is the nature of Maris to begin with. Nice gains in both of those issues today. Now just because INTC is pulling in some bucks, does not necessarily mean they are going to go capex crazy in 1999. It seems to me they have been cutting costs and they continue to cut costs with a continuation of the layoffs to bring it all to the bottom line. I would think the reduction in capex has brought them some money to the bottom line as well. This is just a thought and is not a conclusion. Now for the analysts. Starting with the proposition that they owe us nothing and treat us in a manner consistent with that idea, I find it very interesting that they have been crowing that the sector is overvalued almost in unison. When have they ever done that before? I can't remember last. Anyone? All this seems to suggest that they did not have themselves positioned properly for the upleg and are trying to talk the stocks down and have been quite unsuccessful to date. I recall that when ASMLF made its first spike from the $13 area, some foreign firm came out and reiterated a strong sell. Gee, I wonder if they were short? Maybe the same thing was true with these other analyst firms covering this sector. So I suspect we have had a great deal of short covering in this rally. Either that or the analyst firms did not get enough bargained priced share to fit their needs. All this leads me to believe there is a great deal of support for this sector and while we may get pull-backs, it won't be significant unless the reality of some new and consistent orders does not hit in line with expectations. Of course, exogenous events (you pick it) or an absent Doctor Greenspan in combination with order delays notwithstanding. I continue to sell some margined long positions here and continue to increase short positions as a hedge to longs on market strength as the risk/ reward of being long decreases. I am trading for a pull-back while investing in the uptrend.