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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (138)	11/11/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Stitch, Thanks for your response. What will it take for you to buy or short the stock? I don't see shorting SEG at all at these levels. I am impressed with SEG for reasons stated previously. I will reiterate them briefly: 1. VRTS stake easily valued since it trades separately. Probable synergies with SEG software. 2. Retained SEG software. 3. Dragon Systems - could be killer app, could easily attract investor excitement (even if doesn't achieve full potential). 4. Financial strength/cash hoard. 5. Shareholder value thinking Ceo (loved Shugart, too, but for different reasons) 6. Cycle will turn. 7. Commitment to Fibre channel, optical research. 8. Concentration on time to market 9. Tape Business appears to be improving. This may be considered OT, but one thing that really has me worried is the overall market here. On other threads, I have advanced the topic "fear of alpha". Alpha is the idea that a large portion of the movement of a stock's price is related to the overall movement of the market. While I believe in SEG for the long term, holding at this point in the market scares me. Last FOMC meeting the market wanted 1/2 point rate reduction, got 1/4, the market tanked 19% as measured by the DOW. We had LTCM, Brazilian crisis, Russian crisis, various SE Asia scares. Rubin declared the situation the worst financial crisis in 50 years. One afternoon Greenspan reduced the other 1/4 and the market went straight up, achieving a new high on NDX yesterday. The brief synopsis is an oversimplification, but certainly the worst crisis in 50 years could not be solved by the events of the last month. The internet mania has characteristics of a blow-off top. One confounding aspect of this market is that mid-cap and small-cap stocks, even if already at attractive valuations, get hit the hardest in downturns. What would it take for me to get back in? More comfort with the overall market. A retreat in SEG to lower levels, say 24 or so. I guess in general I would say I think it is a buy here. But it will take either a screaming buy or a more sane market to lure me back in. And the cycle glitches that we have been talking about can't be on the short term radar screen. ======== It seems to me that there is a double edged sword in investing. It makes sense to invest in what we know. So many on this thread are DD scientists/experts. However, it also sensible to diversify our investments and those with careers in this area already have a lot riding on the industry. How do you square those issues in your mind?