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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gottfried who wrote (26165)11/11/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: Fortinwit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Gottfried:
What is an investor who respects fundamentals to do while the grasshoppers make all the money?
I dunno. I continue to scratch myself silly. Stick to discipline? I'm going to listen to Scott K tell us about the future tomorrow. And then respond accordingly.

...wonder if it's legitimate...
I'm reasonably sure they made a second RIF list, not sure if they will execute it or not.

F.



To: Gottfried who wrote (26165)11/12/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: blake_paterson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
G: <<found this on Yahoo. Wonder if it's legitimate..>>

An MF post from inside KLAC on 11/3/98 belies the uncertainty, even for those inside:

<<Subject: Whack!
Date: Tue, Nov 3, 1998 7:51 PM
From: <A HREF="aol://3548:RonNTup">RonNTup</A>
Message-id: <19981103185111.14765.00002233@ng01.aol.com>

The Grim Reaper visited us today...and took with him a good portion of the
work force (word on the block was that it was a 20% cut). Today was a very
dire day indeed...as those left standing, felt both relief (that it wasn't
them) and guilt (again...that it wasn't them). This is a terrible, terrible
time to be looking for a job in the high tech valley. The problem is that
this contagion is not just affecting one
company...but, affecting most. So, very few companies are hiring right now.
Again, a very difficult time to be unemployed right now.

I think this move says alot about conditions in the market right now. And is
part of the reason I posted a few days ago (Of TA and Sentiment). I
unfortuntely stand at ground zero, and have the unfortuante position of seeing
this carnage. I hate to stand on a podium, and shout when the stock is
showing strength (at $36 + when I posted...now at $30)...and tell you that the
sentiment may have changed, but the fundamentals were slow to improve, but
that is the swing of things.

If you are looking for a bottom, today could very well signal it. I believe
that K.T. management does not see an upturn for another 12 mos...and that is
why they let everyone go today. Based on my presumptions in "Of TA and
Sentiment" this could roughly coincide to the time we can expect a "rebound".

I think we will suffer through the rest of this year...and most of next..then
in late 1999, we may see some companies come to the plate and spend a few
dollars. I'm hoping the rebound will come sooner..but, who knows?

Ron>>



To: Gottfried who wrote (26165)11/12/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: blake_paterson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
G: <<What is an investor who
respects fundamentals to do while the grasshoppers make all the money?>>

For those of us that believe in fundamentals and believe in the incredible LONG term fundamentals of this segment, we are buying the undervalued, quality "laggards" (what few are left) with the (still remaining) potential of 4 - 5 fold increases. KLAC and AMAT? Wait and see. Other wise, anybody who bought these after week 3 of October is condemned to be at the screen every day, ever prepared to trade off in the event of any extrinsic or intrinsic surprises, lest you accept a 50% return over 3 years w/ a high risk cost... Just MO... BTW, I love your prose ("while the grasshoppers make all the money") :)

BP