Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Smith who wrote (4882)	11/11/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Greg, The 1800 per day to break even was stated by Lev Dawson, Valence CEO, during the conference call today. It was not an assumption on my part.

To: Greg Smith who wrote (4882)	11/11/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

I don't understand it either. Its hard to believe that the company can achieve breakeven cashflow on just 1800 cells per day. If we believe what Lev said in the conference call, this means some of the following things must be true: Revenues per cell are higher than we've estimated: In order to get higher revenue per cell: 1. The price per Wh is higher than we originally estimated. Lev used $2.50 per Wh, which is higher than the $1.65 we've been using on this thread. 2. The capacity of one cell is higher than we've been using. I referenced the recent Hanil article that implies that the capacity is 15 wH for the 4x4 x 4mm cell. Either they are producing larger cells (larger area, 4x5 ? or thicker, 4.6mm or 6mm ?), or they have made another substantial improvement in Wh per liter. The profit margin must be higher than we've estimated. This means one of the following: 3. The yield is better than we've anticipated, therefore less waste of production costs. 4. The cost of the labor, materials, and maintenance is lower than we've anticipated. 5. Negative cashflow from R&D and SG&A will be reduced substantially from current levels. Summary Lev's lowering the cashflow breakeven from 3000 cells per day last conference call to 1800 cells per day this call, implies that they've made some substantial progress in some of these areas. The improvement in pricing, from sub $2 per Wh to $2.50 per Wh, can't explain it. When he first mentioned the 3000 breakeven point, I was confused as to whether he said cells or batteries. But my notes from this call say 1800 cells, and the people on this thread have confirmed that. I haven't been as concerned about the capacity numbers, because the capacities from the multiple lines will eventually exceed the 2-3M batteries annual rate that I believe is a reasonable market penetration for the first year or so. Just my read. Paul