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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (2561)	11/11/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2951

Tom, There has been a definite upswing in Chinese activity around the Spratlys. It seems odd to me that they would pull this at a time when they know the VFA is under discussion - surely they know that these moves will be an incentive to the Filipinos to bring US forces back, which I don't expect the Chinese would see as a desirable outcome. I would have expected them to maintain a conciliatory stance and lobby against the VFA from behind the scenes, then move in after the agreement was rejected - which it probably would have been in the absence of any credible external threat. I have to wonder where this all fits into the overall foreign policy equation in Beijing. The whole situation is, of course, complicated - even if American forces are in the area, it is by no means certain that they would have any mandate to defend the Philippine claim to the Spratly Islands. I also wonder about the claim that there are large mineral or oil deposits in the area. I've seen this written in many places, and never a shred of supporting evidence. Fishing rights are probably more of an issue. Personally, I wouldn't mind a transient and muted American presence, but I don't think permanent bases would be a good idea. I would also hope they could maintain some control over the public behavior of the troops involved, though that would certainly be a major break from tradition. Interesting times... Steve