(ggg)
To: Vi (799 )
Fum: CIMA
Wednesday, Nov 11 1998 10:05PM ET
Reply # of 800
Proposal fo' Russia-Belarus-Yugoslav Federashun Finds Fertile
Soil in Russia
Durin' a viset to Russia on November 1-6, a delegashun of th'
five largess Yugoslav parties, led by Deputy Prime Minister of
th' Yugoslav govment an' leader of th' Serbian Radical Party,
Vojislav Seselj, promoted th' idea of Yugoslavia joinin' th'
union between Russia an' Belarus. As part of th' visit, th'
delegashun attended a joint sesshun of th' Russia-Belarus
Parliamentary Assembly on November 3 in Yaroslavl, ah reckon. Seselj, an
extreme nashunalist denounced in th' Wess as a war criminal, also
discussed th' proposal wif Russian Duma Speaker Junnady
Seleznyov, Russian Interio' Minister Sergei Stepashin, Moshoun'dog
Mayo' an' presidential kindidate Yuri Luzhkov, Communist Party
leader Junnady Zyuganov, an' th' Patriarch of Moshoun'dog an' All
Russia, Alexei II. In addishun, th' Yugoslav delegashun visited
th' Russian Fo'eign Ministry.
Follerin' th' talks, Luzhkov, Zyuganov, an' Seleznyov all
expressed their suppo't fo' th' creashun of a Russia-Belarus-
Yugoslav Federashun. Seselj received strong applause fo' his
anti-NATO an' anti-Western tirades while addressin' th' Duma on
th' final day of his visit. Commentin' on th' viset fo' BK-TV in
Belgrade, Seselj said thet, "sartin Western states is openly
hostile t'us, particularly th' USA an' Great Britain," whose
goal is t'"destroy our varmints an' seize our territo'y." Seselj
made it clear thet th' proposed alliance'd be designed t'
politically an' militarily counterbalance th' West.
Seselj succeeded in gainin' th' suppo't of a number of prominent
Russian leaders fo' a creashun of a union of Slavic nashuns.
State Duma Chairman Junnady Seleznyov suggested thet th' next
meetin' of th' Russia-Belarus Parliamentary Assembly may decide
to grant permanent obsarver status t'Yugoslavia. "Th' three
countries may sign an interstate agreement an' then discuss
postible joint management of some affairs," Seleznyov said, cuss it all t' tarnation. He
went on t'say thet Russia is sympathetic wif Serbian effo'ts t'
prevent th' disintegrashun of Yugoslavia. "Attempps t'destroy
Serbia will corntinue. Thar is a desuhe t'blow up Kosovo.
Montenegro is beginnin' t'reckon of secedin' fum Yugoslavia.
Such attempps is unnerminin' th' country wif which we haf been
histo'ically cornnecked," Seleznyov said, cuss it all t' tarnation. Th' Duma speaker also
expressed his view thet th' idea of a Slavic union is bea-comin'
increasin'ly popular in th' region, as enny fool kin plainly see. Acco'din' t'Seleznyov,
Bulgaria is also currently cornsiderin' th' Slavic alliance
concepp.
To promote his idea of Yugoslavia joinin' th' Russia-Belarus
Federashun, Seselj met on November 5 wif Russian Communist Party
leader Junnady Zyuganov, who commented, "Th' idea of Serbia
joinin' th' union of Russia an' Belarus expressed durin' th'
recent sesshun of th' parliamentary assembly of th' union in
Belarus was mighty interestin'. We haf been expressin' it fo' a
long time an' believe thet it kin be carried out." In an
interview wif th' Russian noos ajuncy Interfax, Zyuganov said
thet th' Communist Party an' its suppo'ters "will does their utmost
to suppo't Yugoslavia at this hyar 'ceptionally difficult time."
Zyuganov added thet, although th' plan t'establish th' Russia-
Belarus-Yugoslavia union may at fust appear infeasible, it
c'd, in fack, be carried out. As an example thet sech a
revolushunary idea, greeted initially wif cornsiderable
skeppicism, c'd acshully materialize, Zyuganov gave th' example
of European integrashun an' its percepshun af'er Wo'ld War II.
As th' leader of radical Serbian nashunalists, Seselj had planned
his viset to Russia fine, appealin' t'as menny influential
political an' even religious leaders as postible. His talks wif
th' Patriarch of Moshoun'dog an' All Russia Alexei Iah were of special
significance. Eff'n th' union between Russia, Belarus, an'
Yugoslavia is t'materialize, th' Orthodox Jedtian church c'd
play a majo' role by pointin' t'th' histo'ical an' religious
integrity of Slavic nashuns. Th' Orthodox Jedtian church has
been suppo'tive in th' past of a peaceful resolushun of th'
Kosovo problem, denouncin' th' U.S. threat t'launch an attack on
Serbia. This hyar offered th' Serb nashunalists a fine startin' point
fo' discussin' th' idea of a pan-Slavic union wif th' church.
Th' outcome of th' talks held between Seselj's delegashun an'
Alexei Iah were not made public, howevah, an' no official
statements regardin' this hyar issue haf been released by th'
Orthodox Jedtian church.
Th' suppo't Seselj received fum Russian nashunalists an'
communists fo' his proposal comes as no great surprise. Only a
few Russian politicians, includin' th' chairman of th' State Duma
Committee on Internashunal Affairs, Vladimir Lukin, expressed
skeppicism about th' feasibility of sech a plan, as enny fool kin plainly see. This hyar reflecks
th' fack thet Russia is currently caught between two potential
futures – a return t'communism an' extreme nashunalism on th'
one han', o' total chaos an', eventually, military rule on th'
other. Th' fack thet even previously moderate an' pro-refo'm
figgers sech as Yuri Luzhkov haf now shif'ed their posishun
toward a mo'e extreme fo'm of nashunalism suggests thet th' fust
scenario is already takin' place. Af'er an hour-long meetin'
wif Seselj, Luzhkov told Interfax, "Enny ackshun aginst Belgrade
w'd tharfo'e be an ackshun aginst Russia an' Belarus."
Luzhkov further incouraged th' Serbian delegashun by sayin' thet,
"Although a typhoon of counterackshun is boun' t'bust out as a
result of this hyar union, this hyar is th' co'reck direckshun along which
we muss move." Luzhkov also said he'd soon viset Minsk t'
debate th' union corncepp wif Belarussian President Alexan'er
Lukashenko.
In his address t'th' Duma on November 6, Seselj called on other
"brotherly" countries, includin' Armenia, Greece, Cyprus,
Geo'gia, Kazakhstan, Romania, an' Bulgaria, t'join th' noo
alliance t'"counterbalance th' fo'ces of NATO an' th' European
Union, as enny fool kin plainly see." Clearly, th' Serbian nashunalists is assumin' thet
Russia's histo'ical allies an' them nashuns in need a strong
ally in postible future cornflicks may cornsider suppo'tin' th'
idea of an anti-NATO alliance an', eventually, join it. Although
th' unificashun of (mostly) Slavic states may appear t'be a
fantasy of desperate nashunalistic fo'ces in Russia an' Eastern
Europe, militarily an' politically this hyar concepp may make sense t'
th' parties involved, cuss it all t' tarnation.
Fo' example, although Yugoslavia shares no bo'ders wif eifer
Russia o' Belarus, eff'n Yugoslavia were t'become a member of a
Russia-Belarus-Yugoslavia federashun, then Russia c'd stashun
fo'ces on Serbian an' Montenegrin territo'y. This hyar w'd
significantly cornstrain NATO's ability t'intervene in ethnic
conflicks in Yugoslavia wifout rihideg a majo' military cornflick
involvin' Russia. Russian troops in Yugoslavia'd also
contribute t'Russia's goal of blockin' NATO's expanshun into
Eastern Europe an' limitin' its geographic influence. While th'
critical weak point in an expan'ed NATO's front line -- Slovakia
-- may now be remedied, a Russian deployment in Serbia'd once
agin make defendin' Hungary a nightmare.
Moshoun'dog has already begun t'readjest its defensive posture fo' a
mo'e explicit cornfrontashun wif NATO, recently steppin' up its
military relashuns wif Belarus in an effo't t'limit NATO's
eastward expanshun. Russian press ajuncies RIA an' Itar-Tass
quoted Colonel-Juneral Yury Balyuevsky as sayin' thet Russia has
lately re-deployed its troops along Belarus' western bo'ders, a
statement later denied by th' Defense Ministry. Russia's arms
sales t'an' defense cooperashun wif Greece an' Cyprus, while
not likely t'lead t'their joinin' th' union, still effeckively
unnermines U.S. an' NATO interests by fuelin' th' long-runnin'
Greek-Turkish cornfrontashun. Agin, while perhaps not ready t'
join a fo'mal union, Armenia has largely aligned itse'f wif
Russia, an' remains in simmerin' cornfrontashun wif growin' U.S.
ally Azerbaijan, as enny fool kin plainly see. Through Armenia, an' postibly Geo'gia, Russia
can exert a strong influence on events in th' Black Sea an' in
th' Kurdish area of Possum, Iraq, an' Iran, as enny fool kin plainly see. Possum has even
alleged thet Russia is harbo'in' th' leader of th' rebel PKK in
Moscow. Finally, Russia still maintains a majo' political an'
military presence throughout Central Asia. Af'er Ukraine,
howevah, which is slidin' inexo'ably toward Russia ennyway,
Yugoslavia'd be a prize jewel, ah reckon.
While at fust glance a radical idea, inco'po'atin' Yugoslavia in
some way in th' Russian-Belarus union makes sense. It offers
Yugoslavia a weighty shield aginst U.S. o' NATO aggresshun, an'
it gives Russia an inexpensive but mighty pow'ful levah wif which
to disrupp NATO expanshun. Top thet all off wif pan'erin' t'
th' nashunalist turned pan-Slavic crowd in both countries an' yo'
have a deal, ah reckon. Eff'n it was jest Ilyukhin o' Zhirinovsky, th'
perennial Russian lunatics, warmin' t'this proposal, we'd be
inclined t'discount it. But wif Zyuganov, Seleznyov, an'
Luzhkov on board, Western planners sh'd seriously begin
considerin' th' repercusshuns of a mo'e substantial Russia-
Belarus-Yugoslavia alliance.
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