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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Benz Energy (BZG.V) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (46)	11/12/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 272

EA, Let me make sure I got this straight -- Lizzie A. actually went LONG on a VSE stock? I think the VSE oughta halt trading in this thing until this all gets figured out!! I actually have mixed feelings about you buying the stock. I really was hoping you would be shorting it at this point so as to provide some fuel for future rallies. But it sure is lonely in this corner of this cyber-joint so I welcome the company, even if its with an alleged cyber-transvestite IMO you are way off in trying to figure out a tax angle in this thing. One thing you gotta understand is that no self-respecting oil man pays any taxes. They all get special treatment (depletion allowances, etc.) so that even if Prentis is a multi-millionaire, YOU probably paid more taxes than he did last year. Now lets get on to the fun stuff, the upcoming drilling program. They posted up 13 wells, all to be spudded by 1st quarter, on the web site but knowing them and being realistic, lets figure they will actually have drilled, tested (if necessary) and hooked up 5 out of 10 wells by 8/15/99. This hit rate is conservative given they've been hitting more like 75% of their wells so far. Production rates could vary greatly, but just for kicks lets use an average of 6 mmcf of gas a day per well gross. They typically end up with about a 50% working interest so that means they would get 3 mmcfd per well net to Benz. So 5 successful wells @ 3 mmcfd gets you an additional 15 mmcfd of production, which is around double the amount they expect to start 1999 at (assuming both Oakvale Dome development wells hit). Have you seen Strain's report? He is high as usual --- he is calling for them to _average 31 mmcfd for the entire year 1999. This would be the best case. I feel a more realistic forecast would be averaging 15, 20, 25, and 30 mmcfd for each of the 1999 quarters respectively. This would result in 8.1 BCF of production for the year, which computes out to cash flow of C$.36 per share vs. the C$.66 per share Strain gets to. It ain't often that you get to buy an O&G stock for 2 x a realistic projection of next year's cash flow. BTW, did you hear that we've gotten picked up by our first newsletter writer? Its a Houston firm called Scoggin, Alexander & Associates, and Chris Scoggin writes a 1-page fax every week to about 100,000 folks. On Tuesday Chris wrote up our favorite company and basically the Benz phone hasn't stopped ringing yet. Chris is not an O&G guy. His write-up basically says, "hey, if these guys are moving to the US and they don't want to be a BB stock, that must mean they have something up their sleeve to pump up the stock price". Ends up with a short term price target of $2.50 --- $5.00 (not sure if its C$ or US$, but hey, I'll even take Australian $$$!!). Chris wasn't in when I called but his partner was, and he was happy to fax me a copy of the write-up. Their number is 281-531-1884. Maybe Benz can put a copy of it on their web site. The latest "buzz" is that some good news on Benz will be coming out next week. I have a hunch it will be a new deal with Encap, refinancing the current loan into a long term loan. I don't know if its just my imagination but it sure looks like Canaccord (and to a lesser degree Midland) is shorting the hell out of this turkey --- what do you think? If that is true we should get a good short-covering rally after the release. Now that liquidity has come back into the stock maybe we'll even start drawing in the short-term traders. What the hell --- the more the merrier!

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (46)	11/21/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 272

EA, Sorry to see you've lost interest in this. For all the other Benz fans out there, here's my latest propaganda on this turkey, copied from several other threads on which it has been placed: Benz Energy (BZG on the Vancouver) This is an established all-American oil & gas exploration company dressed in a Canadian junior exploration company's clothing. They have over 2 dozen world class prospects in the US Gulf Coast region, several of which they have already found and proven up reserves. Their mix of oil & gas production is about 90% gas and 10% oil. Nat. gas prices have held up admirably in light of the carnage taking place in crude oil prices. On Wednesday they are having a special shareholders' meeting to vote on switching the company from being a Canadian company to being a US company. This will then allow them to be traded on a US exchange. Word I hear is that they are gunning for the Amex. They have two development wells in their most promising field, Oakvale Dome in Mississippi, coming to total depth in a couple of weeks. The production from these wells will likely double the company's production and also will put it in a positive cash flow position for the first time. Check out the SI thread on Benz and also check out their web site at benzenergy.com. Not really expecting a lot from this stock next week, but once we get by Thanksgiving there is going to be a series of very positive news announcements out, all in the space of the next month, as follows: 1) Results of Wednesday's meeting (all proposals approved). 2) 3rd Quarter results (record quarterly production, cash flow). 3) Each of the Oakvale Dome wells reached TD and found several hundred feet of pay; multiple zones productive. 4) Benz gets a whole new financing facility and finances its short-term debt into long-term debt and gets $10 mm more of borrowing capacity. 5) Each of the Oakvale Dome wells tests out with initial gross production rates of 10 -- 15 mmcf a day of gas. 6) The US SEC approves Benz' stock for trading in the US. The stock (currently at C$.90) will likely close the year at something north of C$1.50.

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (46)	1/10/1999 9:30:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 272

EA, Looks like we are finally at the point of seeing some action in this turkey. Only 2 months late --- what's that between friends? This week they should be drilling through the zones of interest on the well that is drilling ahead. We should be able to garner a pretty good clue of how everything is going by where the stock goes. This would be a great time to average down. If the well is successful it is not very likely the stock will go under $.50 again. Lets just hope gas prices can hold up while we wait.