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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Russian Bear who wrote (5923)11/12/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: Rocketman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9719
 
Being a genius has nothing to do with this one. I've just been in a mood to short sell stocks that seem to have run up too high, and ENMD certainly qualified. This stock was obviously run up on hype earlier this year, and although we shorted it way late in the game back then, we did it at $34 and still made money. It justs seems way too early in the game relative to other biotechs to command that high a valuation. It also seemed to have been a sympathy run up with GERN. I never dreamed that the WSJ would put out an article this negative on the whole technology, with so much supporting information. The key thing right now to keep in mind is that the WSJ is a fairly limited circulation paper, and ENMD is held by lots of little believers who aren't your regular trader/investor sorts. This WSJ article will be picked up by the media and spread like wildfire in the next week. You can bet Newsweek, Time and US New, etc... will have to at least do a small blip on it. Then, as the little players loose hope and the big guns want nothing to do with it, it should continue to trend down for quite some time. Plus, this will make it hard for ENMD to expand on their pharma partnering.

<<<<<<<<
Says the company's (Bristol Myers) senior vice president of pharmaceutical development, Christopher Cimarusti: "There's a difference between a lab curiosity and something you can take forward in man."
>>>>>>>>

Everybody seems down on this stuff and having trouble reproducing it. Their were so many so confident that this was the holy grail of cancer that this isn't going to be seen as air leaking out of the balloon, but as a catastrophic failure of the entire balloon - POP!!! and down they fall.

For example, this above article still has not been covered on the news links at Yahoo. But the king of the ENMD hypsters CEO Holladay has a release on Reuters that he obviously rushed out that is:

<<<<<<<
Thursday November 12, 11:59 am Eastern Time

Entremed CEO Holaday Says Endosatin Plans On Track

(This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an article soon)
>>>>>>>

You can bet he is busy putting the spin on it with his PR Gurus and calling in the lawyers to look over his shoulder as I type.

In the meantime the WSJ news doesn't seem to have spread far YET! IT WILL!!!

But also from the WSJ article:
<<<<<<<<
As for EntreMed, its chairman, John Holaday, says, "I'm not going to let delays in mouse studies hinder us in our approach, which is to test human endostatin in people." EntreMed still needs a corporate partner before it can begin such tests.
>>>>>>>

No he won't let it delay him, but you can bet the FDA is going to want ample animal data before they go into humans.

<<<<<<<<
Human tests don't appear likely soon. The National Cancer Institute has delayed human testing of endostatin for at least a year. As for angiostatin, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., which licensed it from EntreMed in 1995, has no set timetable for human tests because "it requires a lot more work," says William Koster, senior vice president for drug discovery.
>>>>>>>>>

Guess the NCI isn't rushing this into humans either.

Now, given all of this, is this company worth a $330M market cap, with only $5M in trailing twelve month revenue, and $38M in cash, relative to other companies in this sector. I think not! This DOG will continue to sink.

Now, even though the model is milking this sucker, it does bum me out as I truly would love to see a cancer cure, but I'm just not convinced that this is it. And even though this now hurts the sector, so ultimately does the kind of hype that was spread in the Spring by ENMD and their collaborators. You can bet there are still people out there who bought ENMD at $50-$85 per share and are still holding on to the dream. Whew UGLY!!!

Rman