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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Lyons who wrote (2520)	11/12/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 43080

Mutual Funds I received a report from Fidelity about how the mutual funds from work were doing and it was almost laughable. They accounted for the gain as Year To Date instead of 1 Year or any other meaningful period. Basically they stated they were up to a NAV of about $49 per share from the Jan low of $42, for 16.7% If you looked at the value from 1 year ago, it was at $46, so the one year return was only really 6.5%. I sat down with our benefits person and tried to explain to him the simple procedure of trendlining. Now this person is an accountant and a CPA and does some tax work. He didn't get it. Further, he wasn't going to let anyone know as that might be misconstrued as ‘giving out investment advice…' Basically I pulled out my statement and charts and showed him that moving my funds from just the Growth fund 8 times (every time the NAV broke trendline) in the last year, I was able to achieve better than a 50% return. Now, you have to be able to move your funds to a fixed income fund at will in order to do this, as we can with only a phone call or internet transaction. Basically all you do is run a trendline connecting the lows on the way up, and the highs on the way down, and when the trendline is broken, you either buy back in or move to fixed. Now I run my mutual funds through my TA package, but the only thing I do is keep a trendline on them and some moving averages. It takes what, a couple seconds a night? I ought to start an internet service listing the trendline reversals for the mutual funds. The software isn't terribly hard to create. Since you can't short them, it wouldn't exacerbate a market's decline, but sure would slow fund managers from buying when they shouldn't. lastshadow