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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (15399)	11/12/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Bill, Guess that DELL has just missed my number which is lower than the street whisper number. It needs more than god's help for DELL to prevent a selloff. First support at 60, next 55. I guess that I am right again. larry!

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (15399)	11/12/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: mod	Respond to of 18691

You gotta be kidding, right? There are hundreds of billions of US$ currency that is missing, the Fed has no idea where it is. They can guess (overseas, mattresses, underground economy, etc.), but really they don't know. :-) I think I know where it went: internet stocks! Dennis

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (15399)	11/13/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Wexler: the Fed...Of course!! They control the money supply...don't they? In banking, yes to a degree, in derivative finance activities, I suspect they are as near powerless as clueless. They also have their fingers on the pulse of the entire banking system. Data they have. Wisdom and insight, not necessarily. Alan Greenspan's caution, rather than the schoolboy enthusiasm for pet ideas demonstrated in the past by fed committee members in their meetings, probably is the most favorable tiller in their results to date. The less they do, the better off we are, as with much of the federal activities. Methinks with regard to derivatives and other largely unregulated and unobservable activities, that the Fed is like a powerful tugboat, but it may find it is in a dark, fog enshrouded sound with many uncharted supertankers. One at a time can be manageable. Two or more at once is impossible, especially in the dark. In ignorance, three things are important: caution, caution, and caution. Greenspan will fit the ticket, if not hit with too much at once. Frankly, I think the hitch is to contract the unknown volume of money generated by derivatives without collapsing the observable banking and loan activities. A major contraction in derivative supply is called for to reduce shocks to the other historical credit institutions we have come to know and love. First rule of finance: bankers are stupid! (quote from first night intro to corporate finance 301 by a Nobel laureate economist at a highly rated b-school--a humorous jibe to introduce finance as distinguished from loaning money). Best regards, m