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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wren who wrote (982)	11/12/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1722

Wren, I'll take the other side of the argument. I do so cautiously and with a complete understanding that I'm still learning. But, I differ with the concept that market timing is not a reasonable strategy for a value investor. As you indicate the key is to take the emotions out of the investment decision, and, more importantly, to have a disciplined approach. However, there are many commercially available indicators to help the investor with these decisions. Frankly, I now use three. Let's take a look at CAT. CAT gets one of the highest scores in my FA scoring system but has been a total dud as an investment. Yet, in the past two months, while CAT has been relatively flat, the astute investor (not me) made a return of about 50%. Not bad for 2 months in a value stock. Take a look at the following chart and see for yourself: iqc.com I assure you that it is not an isolated example. Berney

To: Wren who wrote (982)	11/12/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Respond to of 1722

>>Louis Rukeyser had a statement in his recent newsletter to the effect that the average investor cannot Buy Low and Sell High. At the time of the bottom, fear prevents him from buying, and at the time of the top, greed stops him from selling.<< I agree with you. That's why value investing requires a business like attitude and a reasonable method of determining the values. That's also why it works! Markets tend to sway from periods of greed where former standards are rationalized away and everything is spun favorably to periods of fear where the opposite occurs. A levelheaded person can exploit it.