Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (31761)	11/12/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

That makes sense. But when will it improve...one month, one year, five years, longer? One must consider the risk/reward, time value of money, alternative investments. We have a dead cat bounce here, in my opinion. But rest assured -- I sell rigs -- I don't claim to be a stock guru. Anybody calculated earnings X and a 8-9 PE when day rates go to cash break even on day rates? I will give a free ODB subscription to anyone that does such a calculation on a few of the drillers. The easy ones to do this on would be MRL, RDC, ATW and maybe NE. (Since these don't have a "ton" of term contracts.) big loosbrock.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (31761)	11/12/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George, Waiting for the obvious improvement in the fundamentals is probably too late as you state, however, buying in the light of DECREASING DAYRATES and CONTINUED OVERCAPACITY is also not the wisest thing to do. If you don't want to trade these stocks, then at least step aside until you see some sort of a flattening out of the rates and some improvement in the oil price situation. I'd rather risk missing the first 50% off the bottom and catch the sweet part of the rise when it comes. I think you have to realize that in March when we got the first rebound in the sector, there were only 21 jackups within 90 days of the end of their contracts. That number has swelled to over 50 right now. Remember the Gulf can handle a few jackups being idle and not have a collapse in dayrates, but once the numbers gets as large as it is, I doubt that we will see an improvement in their fortunes anytime soon. Avoid these stocks or trade them.