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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sam who wrote (79146)	11/12/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 176387

We can make upgrades all we want within the current industry revenue trend. My forecast was incredibly optimistic, to go out 3 years with 50% growth! It already traded below 50 last month (briefly) and it enjoys it price because of the current market multiple; over time the multiple will fluctuate but to take it seriously presumes an unrealistic extrapolation. That there are hundreds of fund managers buying into that just illustrates the Casino nature of the market. You would buy on a pullback to 50 only because you can be reasonably sure it will soon bounce up and trade higher in short order. Dell's success is partly based on their concentration on the ever-popular Intel PC, currently the main revenue source for all computer companies, with possible exception of IBM. Yes Hewlett Packard is over 50% PC sales! We really don't have enough of a software set to productively use all that computing power. But to extend the winning streak I'm suspecting the Dell will branch out and in those endeavors may not have such a smash-up model for doing business. Greg

To: sam who wrote (79146)	11/13/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 176387

Dell Traders and potential new investors: * Note this is amatuer chart gazing, not a recommendation * Maybe you can read this: iqc.com Notice the following: o - 2 successive gaps down, making some sort of island formation that candlestick readers would say is bearish. (on the way up this is supposed to be very bullish). o - Reversal of momentum indicator (of course). tifwiw. o - MACD negative (of course) reversed from positive in the earnings run-up, level at zero leading up to this at 65. o - closed below 65 level recently established prior to earnings run-up. o With exception of spike down on Oct 8, Jan 1996 was last time price touched the 200 dma. 200 dma is at 45-47. Anything under 50 will be short-term salvageable (if not on margin). o - Several times rested and touching the 50 dma, now at 60. If the 50 dma crosses below the 200 dma this is a "bearish" technical indication and will be widely recognized as such. o - 200 dma is rising swiftly (+5 in one month) o Michael Dell himself has stated he expects to maintain a 20 - 25 % growth in revenue for five years. No more boasting about 25% sequential. That's all the snake oil I could muster. Of course if Dell price rises indefinitely after bouncing off whatever level it bounces, it will leave a blip in the chart and we're talking PE=100. I think we may be in for some normal sideways action at best before Dell can go straight up again. Dell is heavily over-owned and it won't be pretty when the fund managers don't want to hold so much. Greg