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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Electric who wrote (17733)	11/12/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Favors: Jerry Favors Analysis Thursday November 12 8 pm At the highs today the Dow was up over 83 points.The Dow then pulled all the way back to 8810.94 at which we were down 12.88. We closed up 5.92 . The breadth at the close showed an unofficial 1683 declines to 1332 advances. The Nasdaq closed down 11.05,the equivalent of 52 point closing decline in the Dow.The NYSE cash was down 0.80 and the S&P 500 cash was down 2.80.So today was not a great day for most of the market.However our Gann Cycles suggest we should be near a short term low and the start of some sort of short term rally.Our 2-Day Rate of Change Chart is on a short term Buy Signal and a closing decline below 8788 at 4:00 EST Friday would be necessary to reverse that short term Buy Signal. A decline below 8810 on a print basis in the Dow Friday would be a short term negative signal and suggest lower prices at some point Friday. Our cycles suggest that even if the Dow were to decline sharply tomorrow some sort of brief rally is becoming overdue.The odds are that rally will carry the Dow back up near or above the November 6th high of 9042 intraday and 8990.91 on a print basis. At this point any rally above 8908 on a print basis in the Dow Friday will give a short term Buy Signal from the hourly charts. If that signal is given the Dow would have to hold above 8810 on a print basis or tomorrow's print low,whichever is lower,for that buy signal to remain valid. If the Dow rises above 8908 then falls back below this week's print low a short term sell signal would be given.If that signal is given we still believe it will be only a very short term signal which may not last more than a few hours before reversed. Now do not get us wrong here. We are not raging bulls. But short term we believe we should soon begin another rally back up near or above 9000. Current short term projections call for 9079 plus or minus 81 points on an intraday or "theoretical" basis. Watch the Dec S&P futures tomorrow for early clues as any decline below 1119 in the Dec S&P futures will suggest a test and probable decline below 8810 in the Dow,which as we stated would signal lower prices at least short term Friday.Any rally above 1131.90 in the Dec S&P futures will signal a test and probable rally above 8908 on a print basis in the Dow. Short term traders if the Dow rallies above 8908 on a print basis go long with a stop of 8810 or place that stop 1 point below tomorrow's low,whichever is lower.It is possible a short term Buy Signal could be given closer to current levels prior to our 12:30 update but we cannot be sure of that just yet. Short term traders may want to check with our Short Term Traders Hotline at 10:30 EST tomorrow morning in case a signal is given closer to current levels,but remember that Short Term Traders line is $2.00 per minute. Stock traders and Mutual Fund switchers we know many of you are anxious for the next trade. But even if we are correct about a rally beginning in the next day or two we are not convinced it will take the Dow high enough or last long enough to make it worth your while to go long.If we are correct about that rally it will probably only last a few days and then be followed by an even larger decline,so we are not convinced that the right thing for you to do here is go long,at least not right at this time.What stock traders and mutual fund switchers need is a prolonged advance,or even a prolonged decline to make it worth your while. A brief rally for a few days is not necessarily a good buying opportunity for you. Once we are convinced a sustainable move up or down is beginning we will give you a Buy or Sell signal,and tell you exactly what we want you to buy or sell.But for now any rally we think will be too short lived for you unless you are a short term trader.