Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dell-icious who wrote (79382)	11/12/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: KM	Respond to of 176387

Dell's New Reality (from Street.com) They kicked Kumar off the call. Not good. Top Stories: Dell's New Reality By Eric Moskowitz Staff Reporter 11/12/98 7:51 PM ET Wunder PC maker Dell (DELL:NYSE) does not like naysayers. Dell's conference call was off-limits to the press -- and to Piper Jaffray's Ashok Kumar. "They kicked me off the call, so I had to have someone teleconference me in," Kumar told TheStreet.com. Kumar is looking mighty smart, however, for bucking the Street's lockstep wisdom this week that the nation's leading PC direct seller would continue to put up booming growth numbers one perfect quarter after another. While Dell's earnings result -- 28 cents per share, one penny above the consensus and 65% above last year's 17-cent number -- were impressive, there were voices of concern over the company's less-than-stellar year-over-year revenue result. "Dell usually hits a warp eight on its growth numbers, but this time it was only a warp four," says Mark Specker, an analyst with Soundview Financial. The company reported a 51% year-over-year increase in the quarter, which met the Street estimate. But that might not be good enough. "Hitting [the Street's] number is loaded in Dell land," Specker explains, "because everyone always expects them to do a little better." The less-than-perfect quarter caught some people off-guard. "I'm surprised because I was hearing that Dell was having a real solid quarter," says Stephen Baker, an analyst with PC sales tracker PC Data. The whisper number was either 30 or 31 cents, depending on whom you talked to. The "first, original and official" online whisper numbers site -- whispernumber.com -- had 34 cents. It seems as if investors caught wind of something Thursday, sending the stock down almost three points by the close and another three points afterward -- 8% for the day. That's not exactly an earnings celebration. Baker argues that there is more than just declining average selling prices, or ASPs, that should concern investors going forward. Dell's ASP fell to $2,400 from $2,700 a year ago. The biggest long-term concern is how Dell's competitors, such as Compaq (CPQ:NYSE) and IBM (IBM:NYSE), will be able to offer more of a comprehensive "business services" package to customers, Baker explains. Before Dell fans do anything drastic, they should realize that the company reported a great quarter -- it just wasn't perfect. On the plus side, Dell's ASPs were virtually flat from its second quarter, and its worldwide Internet sales of $10 million per day may be the best in the world. But for Kumar, who stubbornly maintains his strong buy rating on Dell, the cracks have started to show. Not that there's necessarily anything wrong with that. "You know it's much easier to critique Dell than to run a company that well -- I think it's still a very good company to invest in for the long term." (Piper Jaffray has not participated in any of Dell's public offerings.) His theory is that for the last four to six quarters, Dell has had the ideal environment for its model and the "indirects were shooting themselves in the foot." That situation has now changed and the early indications are that things are slowing down a little, says Kumar, who sees a 12% sequential rise in earnings growth in the company's upcoming fourth quarter vs. a 17% sequential jump in last year's fourth quarter. "For Dell, unfortunately, declining growth is its new reality," Kumar concludes. But don't be too pessimistic, says Soundview's Specker. "It's not like anything is critically broken with Dell, and investors should look ahead to a strong 1999." Spoken like a true believer. (Soundview hasn't participated in any underwriting for Dell.)