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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (36074)	11/12/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

<<Still, when I read posts about tulipmania, I questioned historical accuracy, because tulipmania, like other real bubbles, had a frenzied quality that bidding up the prices of Dell, Intel, and so on, lacked.>> Why would you say something like that? Is it "I know nothing, but have a feeling"? Are you 398 years old and kept detailed records of trading in tulips in 1630's? Or it's just that you don't know that tulipmania ran for three years, etc.?

To: Ilaine who wrote (36074)	11/12/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 132070

Hi Cobalt, looks like another case of great minds thinking alike, here is a blurb about the Internet as Cargo Cult: apopalypse.com See ya! CobaltBlue

To: Ilaine who wrote (36074)	11/13/1998 1:40:00 AM
From: Merritt	Respond to of 132070

Cobalt: <<in the hope that they will, by some mysterious process, become rich, like others they know and envy. Kind of like cargo cults.>> Cargo cults are excellent examples of sympathetic magic, one of the two principles on which it's based, according to Sir James Frazer, is "...that like produces like, or that an effect resembles its cause...the Law of Similarity,..." I don't see how that applies. Now, if you were trying to say that the shareholders consider the stock as a totem, the possession of which would somehow bind them to the clan of the rich...well, that seems a reach, too...as well as being a disservice to the shareholders (well, maybe some of them<G>). Maybe we should just mark it off to herd mentality spiced with a lot of greed, or what's come to be known as "momentum investing"...a misnomer if there ever was. BTW, Sir James had an observation that may ring true in today's political climate, "The general result is that at this state of social evolution (he was referring to what he termed "savage society") the supreme power tends to fall into the hands of men of the keenest intelligence and the most unscrupulous character." So much for evolution.<G> Merritt

To: Ilaine who wrote (36074)	11/13/1998 5:38:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Coby: Of course when I said "at least in tulipmania, when the lights went out, you had a tulip bulb or two for your next meal. <g>", I was having fun. I didn't realize it would be a catalyst for a discussion of "historical accuracy". But since it did... I, too, have read Mackay and others on tulipmania. While I agree somewhat with your sorting of stocks into categories of Dell et al as different from eBay, et al, I disagree that it disproves tulipmania. My understanding of tulipmania was that only the very finest tulip bulbs got the most outrageous valuations. Beauty, being in the eye of the beholder, of course. In those days, these most coveted of tulips were the ones with the most extraordinary and unique colors. (My kingdom for a black tulip.) There was a tiering of the market. Ordinary tulip bulbs were higher in price, unusual tulip bulbs were much higher in price, and unique rare colored tulip bulbs achieved astronomical sums. Admiral Liefken 4400 florins, Admiral Van der Eyck 1260 florins...and most precious of all Semper Augustus, weighing 200 perits, was thought to be very cheap at 5500. The latter was much sought after, and even an inferior bulb might command a price of 2000 florins. It is related that, at one time, early in 1636, there were only two roots of this description to be had in all Holland, and those not the best. Which is why I have been skeptical about claims about Dell, Intel, and all. They may be overpriced, but I don't think they are bubble stocks. Now these last few, I agree, have a certain manic frenzy that looks like the real thing. I think the tulipmania analogy is intact. In the tulipmania, not every tulip sold for the highest prices. There was a general overvaluation, and only certain tulips with certain characteristics got the highest prices. Also, fwiw, the having a tulip to munch on, was actually documented in Mackay: "Hardly was his back turned when the merchant missed his valuable Semper Augustus worth three thousand florins, or about 280 l. sterling. The whole establishment was instantly in an uproar; search was everywhere made for the precious root, but it was not to be found. Great was the merchant's distress of mind. The search was renewed, but again without success. At last some one thought of the sailor. The unhappy merchant sprang into the street at the bare suggestion. His alarmed household followed him. The sailor, simple soul! had not thought of concealment. He was found quietly sitting on a coil of ropes, masticating the last morsel of his 'onion'"