Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15434)	11/12/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Caroline	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, wouldn't you buy oil futures after the Iraq threat is done and over? Seems now they'll be inflated. CB

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15434)	11/13/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: Druss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger--I made the mistake of shorting KTEL during its first run up. Never lost so much money so fast in my life. I swore off internets then. I did start shorting them again after the gloss seemed to be off of them. I left YHOO, AMZN, and the like alone and did well. Now the sector has gone crazy again and I am out, this time without getting KTELed. I agree we are in a topping cycle, this sort of nuttiness can't continue for long, certainly not for the whole sector. We may however see the sector cool off like it did before while the stars like YHOO, AOL, and AMZN stay up for a while longer. It will be a truly interesting day when they break. You may be correct about the oils. I haven't done too much study on them, just not enough time. I did think a couple of months ago they might be a good contrary play to go long on. Discussed it a bit with some friends in the market but never got to it. All the Best Druss Currently I am short GERN and look to get another hit in if the 48 Hours program tonight sends it significantly higher.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15434)	11/13/1998 7:14:00 AM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

...the crazy runups ... tells me that we are at another market top just like last Spring. Remember then the "game" moved from stock to stock and we followed behind shorting. Each stock had two or three days in the sun, then crash. I think we are in that same topping cycle. Roger, you are absolutely right, and it's very surprising to me that the behavior hasn't changed. I had expected the market's very sharp decline would have taught investors to seek value, but it seems that nothing has been learned. Perhaps if the market drops 90% and stays down, that will teach the lesson. Of course, I don't want anything that drastic to happen. I was lucky enough to make a little from my shorts during the last drop, and then turned long. The only short I hold is KO, and while I'm underwater, I know that it's not going to double or triple overnight, and I can maintain my short there indefinitely. As far as my longs, I sold TDFX yesterday, for a 30% gain in two months, and am still holding CIEN, in which I have another 30% gain. It's possible that the market may crash again soon, and much harder than before, but I think we may have a few more months before it happens. What I've learned is that during the last cycle, I tried to play the hero much too early, and had to cover shorts for big losses. When the market did retreat, I was tempted to cover for gains too early. So I'm trying to force myself to follow the momentum on the long side, and have been having more luck. I'm still going for battered companies that are much closer to their lows than their highs, and am looking for plays of a few months rather than a few hours. ... there is some chance of problems in the Middle East and higher oil prices. I am very tempted to buy oil futures.......... Oil prices have risen somewhat, but it seems as though Russia and Indonesia will continue to pump and sell as much oil as possible, given the battered states of their economy. I don't know if Venezuela is in bad financial shape, but they are also a big oil producer. So the power of the Arabs to call an embargo seems weakened.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15434)	11/14/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, Can you give me a short explantion on this? This is some Q about DELL's recent quarter results. "Days sales outstanding rose by 3 days. This suggests DELL added 150 million to revenues in the last days and weeks through aggressive sales tactics. Operating expenses dropped. This suggest DELL froze spending as sales came in lower. Taken together, these two items probably added two or three cents to earnings. It looks as though Dell did everything they could just to get to an acceptable level of earnings. The scary part is that you can't stretch forever." And more...... "Two quarter's Dell's DSO's were 35 days, one quarter ago they jumped to 37 days and this quarter they jumped to 40 days. A bump in DSO's is not definitively a sign of problems but it often is and Wall Street knows this. So in May the Dell CFO said on the conference call that he was not happy with the rise in DSO's and would bring them down. Well, they didn't go down, they went up and that is worrisome. If a company does a disporoportionate amount of their sales at the end of a quarter, their DSO's go up. They also go up if the company is offering aggressive terms. Either one of these scenarios is negative. There have been many cases of first rising DSO's then a missed quarter." What's your take on this comment? thanks, larry!