Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Enigma who wrote (22923)	11/13/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116760

RE TA Charting Site, askresearch.com E, I havn't really noticed that about the 50/200 day moving averages. I still think a better way to time entry and exit is 'price rate of change' as I mentioned earlier. If you plot a 4 year daily GEX-T chart with 30/15 price rate of change, you will see that the indicator swings +/- zero with the maximum and minimums coinciding with the medium term tops and bottoms in the stock. When you get to these extremes, you can plot a short term stock price trendine and then act when the trendline is broken. When the stock is in a strong uptrend (or downtrend) the +/- swings are skewed (say up 2 but down 1). When the stock is non-trending, the swings will be equal (say up 2, down 2). At least that is how I would do it. Hope this helps. John

To: Enigma who wrote (22923)	11/13/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116760

That crisis feeling - it's not over yet By SEAN AYLMER One of the world's leading economists yesterday warned that the growing sense of optimism surrounding the global economic outlook was misplaced and a return to buoyant growth was still a long way off. Professor Paul Krugman, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology-based economist, told a Credit Suisse First Boston conference in Sydney that more stable financial markets during the past six weeks did not signal an end to economic turmoil. "It's a pretty depressing world. Two years ago I felt pretty good about the world economy. Now you look at the world and what you see is a very disturbing set of problems." His comments come at the end of a week full of good economic news. The week started with the Reserve Bank providing a positive analysis of the local economy, suggesting that Australia may have dodged the worst of the Asian crisis. Bureau of Statistics figures showed the unemployment rate had dropped from 8.1 per cent to 7.7 per cent. Revised growth figures showed the economy was motoring along at 4.4 per cent during the June quarter this year. And surveys released show positive business and consumer sentiment. There has also been more optimism throughout world financial markets, triggering a strengthening of the yen against the US dollar. But Professor Krugman said believing that the world was on the brink of recovery was short-sighted. "A lot of things have gone wrong in ways people didn't think possible." He nominated the crisis in developing countries, sluggish economic growth in Japan and the possibility of liquidity crises in developed countries as impediments to improvement. The outlook for Asian economies, and indirectly the Australian economy, was not good. "I don't think a full scale recovery is in progress. I think it is just a bit of a bounce ... and there is still a massive overhang of bad debts." He said corporate restructuring was lagging. The Japanese economy was suffering from a liquidity trap. Interest rates were so low that there was now little scope to drop them any further and provide a stimulus to the world's second largest economy. Japan is Australia's largest trading partner and its economy's health is crucial to the well-being of the local economy. He warned that the situation was not necessarily unique to Japan. Interest rates in other developed nations were far lower than during previous pre-slowdown periods of the economic cycle, so in the future there could be less room to cut interest rates to help stumbling economies. "Basically we are paying not for policy failures but for policy successes," Professor Krugman said. He said the stronger yen against the US dollar during the past month was market driven, not any response to changed economic fundamentals. It meant the yen could be trading too high. Professor Krugman also fears a liquidity crisis, such as occurred during September when the US Fed Reserve helped bail out hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management. "For a few weeks it looked alarmingly like 1931 [in the US] but it didn't involve the banks. It was brought under control. But since we don't know what happened then we don't know that it won't happen again." Professor Krugman said Governments needed to think radically, and that might mean reflating the Japanese economy. He forecast the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates on Tuesday, not for economic fundamental reasons, but because "the market expects it". smh.com.au