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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (25874)	11/13/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Yes. Some patience is called for. The fat lady has already sung but newbies to Internet speculating aren't listening - yet. There is little enthusiasm on the rallies - volume has dropped off dramatically. Speculators have watched other Internut stocks soar (ridiculously) while this nut has stayed relatively on the ground and not picked up by the enthusiasm. Whenever some fear, panic, or just plain profit taking set into the sector, then watch out. It will move down. Maybe not until we see another run up to 128-130. It sure is fascinating to watch the effect Internet growth and the early acceptance of e-commerce is having on these stocks. In most respects, this is like so many other speculative bubbles in the past. First comes the attention and realization that huge markets are possible. Then comes the reality that huge market potential draws competition that crushes the chance for huge profits. When the biotech thing first got kicking, the focus was on multi-billion dollar markets for potential cures to troubling ailments. The potential for each company was often seen as "the need for an arthritis drug is $20 billion per year, If company Imex delivers their anti-monoclonal stupendiferous drug, they will be able to charge whatever they want and will make huge profits." The reality has unfolded to find that several companies went ahead with years of development and produced competing drugs that carve up the market potential. Those companies had to partner with large pharmaceuticals to get their products effectively into the market or spend heavily themselves. The result is that many companies never performed and the few that did have resulted in much lower sales and profits than once dreamed about - and which sent their shares flying. What the market sees now, and what is likely to remain the primary focus of the market and pimp ANALS like Lamie for at least a few more quarters, is the huge potential for sales on the Internet. What is not focused on is the ease of competition and price comparison and the delayed reaction of existing businesses to fully pursue a well thought out and executed Internet commerce strategy. The competition has increased just over the past few months but is hardly getting started. For a while, we will have more reports of huge increases in sales and mostly huge losses by companies pursuing those sales. "Isn't it glorious, sales are up 250% over last year! Who cares what the valuation is or that ten new competitors were added this quarter." Until the shift in focus toward the reality of competitive market forces becomes unavoidable, it will continue to play the Internuts long and short whenever excess movement in either direction takes place. Some speculators thinking that these stocks are going to collapse to the ground soon should remember "A sucker is born every minute" - and the Internet is providing fresh hoards of suckers at a record pace. Go with the flow.