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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36135)	11/13/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

SB: Haven't been following the discussion on the thread with respect to "Intel" as a growth company, but the view from this end is that INTC is in a deep, snow-filled ditch. (winter is coming , so have to warm up the appropriate analogies). The company is getting creamed by AMD et al at the bottom end, and the carriage trade micros appeal only to the nerds. (Hickey had a nice piece citing the test results of Intel's latest "hot chip" and noted that in most applications the difference in speed was "not discernible"). So how does Mr. B (Andy's replacement) keep the plants humming? We estimate that PC unit sales next year will be, at best, roughly flat compared with this year. (As an aside, we estimate that PC revenues will be DOWN y-o-y,..... this year,..........first time in history). Last year, Intel provided virtually all required micros, whereas this year, they are just one of the boys. Micro prices are under serious pressure . I can see nothing that suggests any increases in PC sales next year. AMD and its siblings all grow stronger as producers and can currently ship everything they can produce. They are also grabbing former Intel loyalists at every turn. INTC is a great put candidate as their massive manufacturing capacity is rapidly becoming an Albatross. Best, Earlie

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36135)	11/13/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter Bug, >>> what happened to the trend is your friend group? <<< You can't always believe what you find in your fortune cookie. You sometimes have to take it with a grain of soy. Intel is one of the great growth stories in business history - reaching $25B in the fastest time of any company ever. They had a tremendous year in 1996 right after Microsoft came out with Windows 95 and the Internet just exploded. Couple this with Far East meltdown and the tremendous greed on the part of Eckhardt Pfeiffer who stuffed the channels with an enormous amount of inventory that couldn't be sold the following Christmas season (because the growth of the previous year was maybe a once in a lift time type of thing and was unlikely to be repeated) Intel had following a couple of disastrous quarters only in comparison to growth rate. They still achieved net income of over $1B in each of those disastrous quarters. The "trend" last quarter and the next quarter is definitely up. Take a look at the stock price - it has some correlation - and it may forecast some things to come. My fortune cookie read "don't fight the tape". Regards, Mary