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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (2178)	11/13/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 80957

Hutch : My replies to your various points are in capitals. Technical analysis is a strange animal. And you can draw any amount of curvilinear charts you like. The first point to realize is that: 1) XAU charts are controlled by GOLD YES AND NO. QUITE OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO BUT IT IS AN EXTREMELY LOOSE ONE. THE XAU/AU RATIO AT GOLDSHEET URL CLEARLY SHOWS THAT. 2) XAU stocks trade within ranges over the fundamentals FUNDAMENTALS ARE ANYTHING YOU CHOOSE TO MAKE THEM. THERE ARE NO ABSOLUTES. IN FACT, EXPECTATIONS ARE FAR MORE IMPORTANT IN DRIVING MARKET ACTION THAN KNOWN/HISTORIC FINANCIAL STATISTICS. 3) XAU analysis breaks down, and the POG fundamentals are more important I'M NOT SURE WHAT YOU MEAN 4) Gold is not a simple animal, and varies on a lot of other fundamentals I'M NOT SURE WHAT YOU MEAN 5) Gold has a large correlation {not curvilinear envelopes} to currencies, money growth, interest rates...etc ABSOLUTELY. MY OWN ANALYSES ARE, PARTICULARLY, BETWEEN POG AND CURRENCIES. BUT, HAVING SAID THAT, THE "TETHER" TO THE CURRENCIES IS A LOOSE ONE AND CONTRARIWISE MOVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. 6) One analysis is insufficient to draw a conclusion I'M SURE THAT'S TRUE. BUT, WE ARE LOOKING AT MANY DIFFERENT ONES --- HOPEFULLY WITHOUT PREJUDICE!! 7) Supply of GOLD around DEC increases, and demand is near none existance. As jewlery is made in the summer for christmas. OK 8) Gold producers are paid in US Dollars, and as the US Dollar appreciates, gold depreciates, as messured against a basket of currencies. AGREE 100%, BUT THE RELATIONSHIP IS NOT A 'TIGHT' ONE ON A DAY-TO-DAY/WEEK-TO-WEEK BASIS. 9) Excessive supply can come from europe as currency fluctuate. WITHIN REASON. EVEN SELLERS ARE NOT STUPID TO DEPRESS THE PRICE EXCESSIVELY. I THINK SHORT/FORWARD SELLING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAT ACTUAL SELLING IN DEPRESSING THE PRICE 10) short squeezes are possible in last days of a contract. OK 11) XAU is over inflated by the majourity producer {ABX} I ACCEPT WHAT YOU SAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A VERY CLOSE, ALMOST IDENTICAL REPLICATION, BETWEEN XAU AND TSE MINING AND EVEN MAJOR SAFRICANS. SO, THE MINUTE DETAILS OF ANY ONE INDEX ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPORTANT. I don't agree with Elliot wave analysis, I THINK ELLIOT IS A JOKE convolution theories, I HAVEN'T A CLUE and I'm not completly convinced of Curvilinear envelopes {but will research it tonight} I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THEM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE WHAT THOSE CYCLES COME UP WITH. IN FACT, THE SITE OWNER, AT MY REQUEST, HAS AGREED TO DO AN XAU CHART Actually, I don't belief gold flows in cycles. I DON'T KNOW THAT THAT'S RELEVANT. THE CYCLICAL CHARTS DO NOT RELATE TO ANY SUPPLY/DEMAND MARKET PHENOMENON BUT TO PRICE ACTION I'll post some of my charts later. THANK YOU. I AM READY TO LEARN