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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael modeme who wrote (80088)	11/13/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

Michael, understood. And I was criticizing the focus on sequential sales because it obscures seasonal effects. In any event, Kumar's claims of Dell's desktop sales sequentially growing at 20% under the industry average of 10% (I presume units, not revenues) is just plain incorrect. There is another subtle issue which may not have been discussed, and that is the fact that the other players in this industry artificially depressed sales in the previous quarter as they tried to work off excess inventory in the channels. Remember, IDC's numbers measure manufacturers' sales, not sales to the final customer. This means that either there must be a reinflation of channel inventories, or there must be a strong seasonal component in consumer desktop sales, because if sequential desktop sales are up 10% industry wide, that would imply a 46.4% annualized growth in desktop sales, which does not square with the industry wide estimates of 17% growth per annum (which equates to a 4% sequential growth). To put it another way, if sequential growth were up 10% for the quarter, that leaves 6.36% growth for the remaining three quarters in order to achieve 17% pa growth. Conclusion: does not compute! TTFN, CTC