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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (3784)	11/14/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Haim, I beg to disagree. I think the US is hell-bent to put Saddam in an untenable situation this time. Saddam's past intransigence has been partially due to his need to maintain the support of his "republican guard" leaders who have tied their future success and security to his regime. What puts this priviledge at risk is to have the US and UN inspectors walking with impunity through their properties, detailing all of their assets and violating their personal secrets and broadcasting it on CNN, exposing them for all the Iraqi people to see. Now the US is bent on forcing a complete capitulation with regard to inspections. This will result in a loss of face for Hussein and place their priviledged lives at risk of exposure and contempt in front of their oppressed people (who have to scrape for daily food and consumer goods). So the Iraqi political apparatus faces a quandary. Permit unfettered inspections which will create loss of face and likely subversion of their authority. Or they can face the destruction of their military and security apparatus which provides them the mechanism for oppressing their own people and maintaining domestic terror, which would also greatly weaken their domestic strength. Either way, the US actions are aimed at setting the stage for an internal coup or popular uprising against Hussein politico-military machine. The key will be to keep civilian casualties to a minimum, while maximizing the use of the news media to undercut internal order in Iraq. As for oil reserves, we have a current oil glut as it is. There is no desire to permit Iraq to pump oil in mass and exacerbate this problem. My sense is that this time it is different. Additionally, I also sense that the Clinton administration is somewhat worried about the other issues that will become evident in 1999, and have no desire to see Hussein profit or be a matter of concern for the next couple of years. I speak of the pyschological and economic worries over Y2K and the current global economic conditions. So they will neuter him now, either through military action or through unbridled inspection processes (which are politically embarrassing and a sign of Hussein's weakness), in order to remove him from their list of concerns. Regards, Ron