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To: Moominoid who wrote (80156)11/13/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: BGR  Respond to of 176387
 
David, Check CSCO out. The earnings appreciation slowed, but the stock appreciation rate, while also slowing, remained ABOVE the earnings appreciation rate. Or MSFT, for that matter. Fact is, there are not too many non-cyclical tech blue chips showing consistent secular growth. On average, I feel that investors have a (perhaps not so rational) preference for such stocks resulting in PE expansion.

Of these, DELL executes the best. As MD mentioned today in CNBC, if DELL indeed succeeds in grabbing 20% market share over next 4 years, DELL should have no problem maintaining 50%+ earnings growth in that period. So I suspect that average stock price appreciation will be well above 50-55%. But as I said, that's all gravy.



To: Moominoid who wrote (80156)11/13/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
David, you are missing a few other pieces to the puzzle. First, if interest rates drop stock prices rise. Second, if the perception of riskiness of the security drops, the price should rise and become more stable as the beta drops. How do you explain the P/E of the S&P 500 with a forecasted growth of around 8%?

TTFN,
CTC