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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxwell who wrote (41464)	11/13/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1573431

Re: "K6 Unit Shipments in Q4 Should Exceed Previous Guidance of 4.5M units. AMD CEO, Jerry Sanders, let slip during the meeting that K6 shipments could reach 4.7 million units in Q4. Compared with the previous guidance of 4.5 million units, this revelation is a yawner, and may even be negative, considering where the stock is at currently. Be that as it may, our checks suggest that the company is likely to ship more than 5 million K6 units in Q4 with the help of die bank inventory from Q3 and strong demand throughout the quarter. 400-MHz yields remain low as this version of the K6 incorporates re-designed transistors that are faster. While the schedule for 400-MHz K6s may have slipped a bit, it should still be possible for AMD to fulfill its promise of "several hundred thousand" K6s in Q4. Yields on the older 350-MHz K6 design, on the other hand, are stable and are currently running at better than 150 good dice per wafer out of approximately 300 candidates per wafer. At the meeting, management disclosed that the company has already shipped several hundred thousand mobile K6s. " Interesting stuff... I see AMD had a "die bank inventory from Q3". I guess that's a new name for unsold inventory. The yield numbers ~150/300 are quite frankly piss poor yield. I thought they could do better than that. Re: "Even though early yields on the K7 have been acceptable, it is still not good enough for volume production - suggesting perhaps that the K7 will be targeted at server applications initially. " Yield discussion for a part that hasn't even been demoed in public are a bit of a stretch. Re: "K7 to Debut at Comdex Next Week. Billed as a 500-MHz device using 0.25m technology, the official target release date for the K7 is Q2 '99. However AMD's OEM partners such as Compaq and IBM are applying significant pressure on the company to pull in the K7's release date to Q1 '99. " Other sources seem to think the K7 has slipped to 2H'99 news.com "The K7 is AMD's next generation processor that has been receiving high marks from analysts. When it arrives commercially in the second half of 1999" Tell me Maxwell, will we get some benchmarks next week or just more hype? EP

To: Maxwell who wrote (41464)	11/13/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573431

Maxwell, Some great news: 1. 5M K6's. 2. Yield of 150/wfr or a sub $15 die cost for K6's. 3. Sharptooth on schedule. 4. Other biz units recovering. 5. Close to functionality on K7 chip sets. The bad news: 1. Poor yields on 400Mhz versions due to new process. 2. Delay in 400Mhz devices. 3. Poor yields on K7 in 0.25 and wait for 0.18 micron. Clearly, they are now targetting Sharpy at laptops. The big question IMHO is how many K7's can they deliver next year. I sure as hell hope they have a second source lined up such as Motorola. Otherwise they will be sitting there in Q2 with folks clamouring for K7's and shipping a few hundreds of thousands per quarter. Regards, Kash

To: Maxwell who wrote (41464)	11/13/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573431

However AMD's OEM partners such as Compaq and IBM are applying significant pressure on the company to pull in the K7's release date to Q1 '99. That sounds positive. Bob

To: Maxwell who wrote (41464)	11/13/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: Maxwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573431

AMD Q4 EPS Competition (Update): Name Entry Date Q4 Rev. EPS Old Est. K6/K6-2 ASP (M) ($) ($) (M) ($) Needham & Co.*11/3/98 $772 $0.06 4.5 97 Banc Boston* 11/13/98 $780 $0.12 4.8 101 Volpe Brown* 11/13/98 $780 $0.13 $0.02 4.8 100 Ashok Kumar* 11/10/98 $800 $0.13 4.7 100 Paine Webber* 11/13/98 $815 $0.13 $0.10 4.7 100 Prudential* 11/10/98 $790 $0.14 5 100 Alex Brown* 11/3/98 $770 $0.15 4.7 100 Tom Kurlacks* 11/6/98 $780 $0.17 4.6 106 Soundview* 11/13/98 ??? $0.19 ???? ???? CREDIT SUISSE11/13/98 $785 $0.20 5 101 Goldman Sach 11/13/98 $790 $0.20 $0.13 4.7 100 Sutro & Co.* 11/13/98 $800 $0.20 $0.20 5 100 Jean Gauthier 11/3/98 $800 $0.21 4.9 105 RDM 11/6/98 $805 $0.23 4.9 104 ABN AMRO* 11/13/98 ???? $0.23 ??? ????? Yougang Xiao 11/4/98 $810 $0.24 5 98 Joel & Cindy F. 11/3/98 $840 $0.30 4.8 110 Harry Campbell 11/3/98 $825 $0.35 5.35 102 Ed Talenti 11/10/98 $850 $0.41 5.1 108 Mark Lucas 11/5/98 $855 $0.41 5.2 107 Maxwell 11/3/98 $852 $0.44 5.3 100 Chan Man Lo 11/11/98 $845 $0.48 5.6 102 CROSSY 11/3/98 $927 $0.48 5.7 110 First Call 11/3/98 $0.08 First Call 11/10/98 $0.10 Average $813 $0.24 4.97 $102 Deviation $38 $0.13 0.32 $4 * are analysts or brokers. Maxwell