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To: John Mansfield who wrote (22945)	11/14/1998 3:51:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 116763

' Tom's Take ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Three long posts (sorry) and then I'm going to go back to lurking for a while. For what it's worth, this is my take on the whole sorry affair. People in denial are defending their position in the same way the Dream Team defended O.J. Simpson. The big picture is being ignored while we argue over the minutiae of DNA evidence. Bait and switch. Demand an impossible burden of proof. The fact that no one can predict the exact size and shape of the disaster is twisted to suggest that the chances of a blip in the road are just as likely as the Milne scenario. Just like Mark Fuhrman planting the glove became just as likely as a murdering Simpson. Split hairs. Blow slivers of good news into "If it does not fit, you must acquit." Paul Milne posted the "Pollyanna Progression" yesterday, but it is more than that for me. 1. We will fix all the systems 2. We will fix most of the systems 3. We will fix all the Mission Critical Systems 4. We will fix most of the Mission Critical Systems 5. All of the Mission Critical systems can not be fixed. 6. There will be some mission Critical systems failures 7. We will use paper and pencils to work around what was formally called 'Mission Critical' and now is recognized to not only be not mission critical, but we never needed then in the first place. This has been exactly the track the media has followed since I began monitoring it closely about a year ago. Phase one was just ending. Number seven was a non-starter for me from the very beginning so all chance of convincing me of an optimistic scenario is gone even though I am, at heart, an optimistic guy. The progression alone is as convincing to me as the trail of blood from Bundy to Rockingham. My happyface went for good when the December 31st, 1998, drop dead date mysteriously disappeared. The happyface was replaced by a paranoid suspicion that I was not being told the truth on the issue. In the end, I have decided paranoia is healthy. I disagree with Milne's take on the reasons for this disaster, and I have too much faith in humans to buy into the mutant cannibal routine except in isolated areas. But on the systemic issue and the lying he is absolutely right on. I do not think I am being told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. If the propaganda machine keeps churning out the happyface messages, some people will be in denial until the end. At risk of DD invoking Godwin's Law (Correct reference? I'd love to have that one explained) I still think the best denial analogy is the Germans near the end of WWII. The Russians had surrounded Berlin and a substantial portion of the population still believed they would be saved by a silver bullet, er, a secret weapon. ... cairns.net.au

To: John Mansfield who wrote (22945)	11/14/1998 3:56:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116763

'The lawyer is burning his Y2K litigation files in his fireplace trying to keep warm.' LOL 'So rational Joe Public wakes up in the spring of 1999. Suddenly next winter doesn't seem that far away. Joe gets more than a little concerned. He decides to wander down to the store and pick up a propane heater. He'll use the VISA, and hope the charge squeezes through. And, hey, why doesn't he pick up a few sacks of rice while he's at it? Beat the rush and all that. This is not panic to Joe. This is rational behavior. It is so rational that everywhere Joe goes, he meets other people trying to buy the same things and clutching the same pieces of plastic. Joe starts to walk more quickly from store to store, and he even finds himself breaking into a jog down the aisles. Faster and faster.. Some places stop accepting plastic! ATM machines empty.. When the public wakes up and behaves rationally, what then? ......... 'The lawyer is burning his Y2K litigation files in his fireplace trying to keep warm.' _____ from same site as previous post

To: John Mansfield who wrote (22945)	11/14/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: Oak Tree	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116763

I'm not an expert in gold prices. I just like to buy stocks that mine the stuff. Someone please explain to me why the y2k bug will make gold go up. If the whole world is in termoil, so what? Why does that effect gold any different than $ or yen or shekels? If anything it will probably benefit the computer industry that will suddenly have to replace everything under emergency conditions and will thus be able to charge top dollar for everything they do. This will be a relief to an industry that has to cost compete everything so severely.