November 16, 1998
It's Lunar, See?
By Alan Abelson
Thank you, Brian and Ronald Trochelmann; we're forever in your debt.
So, who are Brian and Ronald Trochelmann? And what have they done to earn our eternal gratitude?
The Messrs. Trochelmann are, as you may have astutely surmised, kin -- they are, in fact, brothers -- and hail from Atlanta. What they have done is nothing less than illuminate the most intriguing mystery of our time: the incredibly powerful attraction that the Internet exerts on investors.
That attraction, long evident in the gravity-defying ascent of America Online, Amazon, Yahoo, et frenzied al., gained fresh and graphic demonstration last week with the public coming out of a couple of Internet ingenues called EarthWeb and theglobe.com. EarthWeb hit the air running and leaped to a virtual record with a 248% appreciation its first day of trading. Two sessions later, theglobe.com was offered at $9 a share, opened at $87 and climbed to $97.
Before the Trochelmanns, we would have been totally baffled by these awesome flights into the stratosphere. But now it's all perfectly clear. For the Trochelmanns conceived of a truly inspired idea of reaping enormous fortunes by mining the moon.
More specifically, according to federal prosecutors who indicted the pair in Manhattan last week, the Trochelmanns were seeking to cash in on the space craze rekindled by John Glenn's ancient mariner shtick, by peddling purported pieces of moon rock. And, the feds suggest, the enterprising brothers had every reason to expect to pocket millions from starry-eyed innocents and lunar aficionados (the latter are known, in cosmological circles, by the technical designation lunatics).
The marvelous epiphany the Trochelmanns supplied us with is that the Internet stocks are fake pieces of moon rock. Just as the Trochelmanns divined that pieces of plain old rock would be transfigured into gemlike objects coruscating with a dreamy, romantic and irresistible gloss if they came from the moon, so Wall Street's clever fantasy merchants understood that mundane shares of stock, which wouldn't bring two cents as is, can fetch a fortune if cloaked in the gossamer raiments of the Internet.
Whether rocks or stocks, the buyers think they're getting a piece of heaven. As to the counterparties in these out-of-this-world transactions, the literal Trochelmanns and the figurative Trochelmanns on the Street, it's fair to say they were simply mooning the public.
Theglobe.com illustrates beautifully the speculative moonshine that's all the rage in this resuscitated bull market. The company has a business; namely, to help Internet (drumrolls, please!) users create their own World Wide Web sites. That business is not yet a big earner; in fact, in the first half of this year, theglobe.com lost $5.8 million on revenues of $1.2 million. Which suggests that the sure way for the company to show a profit might be to shut down operations.
Part of the propulsion system vital to the successful liftoff of both EarthWeb and theglobe.com is the tiny number of shares floated in their IPOs, 2.1 million for the former, 3.1 million for the latter. Scarcity, obviously, is a great com.on and provides tremendous impetus to the stocks, once in orbit.
Theglobe.com, like a number of Internet numbers, relies on advertisers for revenues. Whether it's rather unfocused sites can attract big-buck ads remains to be seen (translation: we're dubious). On this score, we recently received an interesting communique from privately owned Thomas Register, claiming that it has 5,000 corporate advertisers at its site, yet Infoseek reportedly has only 500. So why is Infoseek such a hot item? Or, for that matter, Yahoo or Excite? Maybe we ought to ask the Trochelmanns.
Apart from its sheer delightful nuttiness, the action of the Internet stocks is the kind of feckless frolicking that often is a harbinger of at least a temporary interruption of a rambunctious bull move. And in fact, during the past couple of years, wild eruptions in the Internet sector such as we're happy witness to have been followed within a couple of weeks by a break in the overall market.
Nice to know we don't have long to wait. |