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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (11240)	11/14/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 42804

Welcome, Dennis. It's good to see you posting here. <<Is this ASND at $22?>> No. This is ASND lower than $22. ASND never fell to just above cash value. If I didn't think this was so, I would not still be long this stock, given recent events the past year. <<Gross margin going in the wrong direction, but a new product line not finished in time for the 9 month results, but implied to be coming soon. Any guesses on what that product is? When it might be announced?>> The product is their Optical Networking line of products, which was delayed 3 months due to delays by a supplier to MRV (the fiber subsidiary), which caused MRV to delay supplies to NBASE (the networking subsidiary). The products are supposed to be announced late this quarter. <<What does Xyplex do for MRVC anyway? Positive, negative?>> Xyplex is a major positive. It gave MRVC a number of new and existing products, such as EdgeGuardian and EdgeBlaster, a base of domestic customers, a much stronger sales staff domestically, 8 patents, a significant increase in R&D and engineers, and the main positives, IMO, vastly increased customer service and support, which is generating a growing stream of deferred revenue, and hundreds of man years of routing and networking software code, along with PROVEN connectivity to CSCO, BAY and other standard networking vendors products for Ethernet, Token-Ring, ATM, Sonet, etc. This last is what is allowing them to quickly build major new products, such as their carrier class router due in 2H99, and offer a full range of connectivity in their current products. <<Sales up nicely. Now if profits could just follow.>> Profits WILL follow. Their EPS is down not because of reduced sales, but because they significantly increased their R&D and SG&A infrastructure. Europe will pick up after the Summer slowdown, and Fiber Driver is going to be a big winner for them. EdgeBlaster is ramping slowly, but new enhancements coming in Q1 should help sales there. The newer versions of their Ethernet switching products, should also help get their margins back to pre Q3 levels. They are also working to increase their revenue from their Fiber Optic products, which is steady income for MRVC. The RELTEC contract with (I forget the major carrier) will increase the use of MRV products as well, as MRV supplies products that connect to RELTEC's. Also hints of a major new contract for MRV fiber products for mid next year. They are working on increasing their foundry capacity up to 8 times by February, so this should tell you they are expecting gains there. <<I wonder if volume was low because investors were waiting for the Form 10-Q to be filed so they could read it.>> Who knows? There likely won't be much news to drive the stock for a few weeks yet. The thin trading is still allowing shorts room to play with the stock, and tax selling may/may not be over.

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (11240)	11/14/1998 9:50:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Here is some financial data I had put in a spreadsheet when the question came up several weeks ago about whether MRVC had ever had positive Net Income. The answer is clearly yes and up until this year was only negative for 2-3 quarters, but we are still negative, probably until Q1 1999. This issue arose during our famous Mr. Pink timeframe and again on the Yahoo! thread. I updated this for Q3 and added 3 columns for Revenue, GM and EPS before charges. Notice the variation on GM. MRVC has had drops below 40% before and they were always only for one quarter. Note that 1998 Revenue has already exceeded 1997 full year revenue. Comments appreciated. Enjoy. Year Revenue GM% EPS Op Inc. Op Inc. 1 time Net Inc Cum Cum QTR (000) Bef Chg Bef Chg Aft Chg Chgs (Loss) Op Inc Net Inc 1993YR FullYr 7,400 46.97 0.07 1,130 1,130 840 1,130 840 1994 Q1 2,759 45.99 408 408 292 1,538 1,132 Q2 3,846 40.82 499 499 349 2,037 1,481 Q3 4,731 38.08 589 589 402 2,626 1,883 Q4 6,190 41.30 943 943 575 3,569 2,458 Tot94 17,526 41.07 0.13 2,439 2,439 1,618 1995 Q1 6,737 36.76 0.04 858 858 705 4,427 3,163 Q2 8,310 41.81 0.05 1,221 (6,455) 7,676 (4,707) (2,028) (1,544) Q3 11,135 43.34 0.06 1,645 1,645 1,155 (383) (389) Q4 13,020 44.66 0.08 2,027 2,027 1,574 1,644 1,185 Tot95 39,202 43.32 0.23 5,751 (1,925) (1,273) 1996 Q1 15,529 42.11 0.09 2,720 2,720 1,879 4,364 3,064 Q2 19,586 41.73 0.10 3,224 3,224 2,283 7,588 5,347 Q3 22,664 41.39 0.11 3,558 (21,211) 24,769 (15,504)(13,623)(10,157) Q4 31,036 42.66 0.16 5,609 5,609 1,688 (8,014) (8,469) Tot96 88,815 42.04 0.46 15,111 (9,658) (9,654) 1997 Q1 35,564 43.26 0.19 6,865 6,865 4,343 (1,149) (4,126) Q2 39,528 42.10 0.21 7,370 7,370 5,209 6,221 1,083 Q3 41,979 43.29 0.23 8,131 8,131 5,922 14,352 7,005 Q4 48,400 42.47 0.25 7,938 7,938 7,111 22,290 14,116 Tot97 165,471 42.76 0.88 30,304 30,304 22,585 1998 Q1 60,826 44.09 0.26 10,116 (43,649) 53,765 (40,021)(21,359)(25,905) Q2 65,742 44.10 0.31 11,592 11,592 8,735 (9,767)(17,170) Q3 62,624 38.77 0.06 1,826 1,826 1,555 (7,941)(15,615) Q4 Tot98 189,192 0.63 23,534 (30,231) (29,731) GrTot 507,606 78,269 (7,941) 86,210 (15,615)