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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (26263)	11/14/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jean, re >hope you will be gentle with me.< LOL! This is a very civil thread. Your observations are mostly right on. The stock is going up because of demand for it, not because of basic valuation. Just like AMZN. Gottfried

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (26263)	11/14/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Hi Jean, Welcome to the AMAT thread! If only Investing is a Science and not an Art, then this Formula will make Investing easy for us:--- lower PAST & PRESENT earnings = lower stock prices NOW & the FUTURE ... but, take a look at this chart:--- chart1.bigcharts.com Regards! Tito

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (26263)	11/14/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

Hi Jean. Perhaps the following from H&Q might help you with part of the puzzle. Good luck! Jeff ** Hambrecht & Quist Hambrecht & Quist Hambrecht & Quist ** Company: Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Firm: Hambrecht & Quist Date: 11/10/98 Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Notes from Taiwan A Mixed Picture The picture from Taiwan is mixed. On the positive side, after a very weak summer, demand for equipment appears to be strengthening. The Semicon Taiwan show was upbeat. The activity level was very high and the attendees were characterized as high quality buyers with budgets. We believe the building for TMSC fab 6 in Tainan is nearing completion. This is going to be a megafab, a 60-90 thousand wafer start fab when it is complete. This is 2 times the size of an Intel fab and will be built in multiple phases. This project has been progressing slowly but now seems to be on track for production in the 2nd half of 1999. We expect the first round of equipment orders to be placed in Q1:99 and we estimate that orders for the first phase will be in the $250-$400 million range, depending on how much equipment the company re-uses from older facilities. There are other companies rumored to be moving forward with fab projects. The most notable is UMC's expected re-start of fab 5. This project had been on hold. We had also picked up on several other companies rumored to have increasing equipment order activity. However, these rumors were not as pervasive as the rumors of TSMC and UMC's renewed activity. On the negative side, there is still lack of visibility that exists in the component demand picture and there is a profit squeeze in the electronics food chain in Taiwan. In talking to several suppliers, we gathered that foundry utilization is 70% or less at most foundries. In addition, October and November represent peak seasonal build months and consequently the period of the highest capacity utilization. Last year, utilization rates were running at 90%. It is also expected that utilization rates will fall in the first quarter--which is the normal seasonal effect--and then start to recover in Q2:1999. However, this is difficult to determine given that foundry customers are waiting until the last minute to place orders, given cycle times through fabs, assembly and test are very short relative to historic norms. On the positive side, this is keeping inventory at historically low levels and any pick-up in demand is felt immediately.