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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn who wrote (107)	11/14/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 90042

OK, here's one. Your intuition is almost always correct. If you second guess yourself, you screw up, as a general rule. The reason intuition is wrong sometimes is because you don't have all the data. If you are missing data, or can't use the data you have in a sane manner, you will make mistakes. But you should always trust your intuition. If you are wrong, it just means that you didn't have enough data. Making errors is only bad if they cost you so much money that you can't eat or pay the bills. The market goes up and down. It doesn't matter which way it goes as long as you are on the right side. Looking at it from a bull's viewpoint, you would want to buy on the dips. So if you are bullish, wait for a dip to buy into the market. You don't have to suddenly become a bear. Trust your own instinct. If you are bearish (like I am right now) you'll sell on the rallies. Either way, we both make money if we get out fast when we are wrong.

To: Glenn who wrote (107)	11/14/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 90042

Let's take this a bit further, since I have a couple of minutes here. Let's say you are bullish on a stock. A good one is ASND; great company, great products, great management, great employees, etc. You wanted to get in at 24 bucks in January, but you missed it. Then it ran to 50 bucks and you sat and watched and thought, "Man, I missed that, that was a homerun for sure." At that point you could give up. Or, you could still be bullish on the stock and wait for a dip. You can get as technical as you want on where the dip will be and what it will go down to, but the bottom line is that if there is a significant dip on the stock, you want to own it. If it's at 50, you might buy it and hold on for a move up. But if you are a real pro, you wait for a dip (if you are bullish on the stock). Well, that day arrived (twice!), and I was there. ASND went down to 30 bucks, but I thought it was a great deal anywhere under 35. Let's say I bought some on those days. I missed that 6 month move from 22 to 55, but I didn't miss two chances to own it at 35: techstocks.com Now, let's say I'm bearish on the market in general, or I'm worried. If I owned it at 50, I'm hoping it won't take a dive and make me worry. If I owned it at 35, the guy that likes it on its next fast move above 53 will be buying his stock from me! I made 18 bucks on a 35 dollar deal in less than 6 months. I'll take that kind of gain all year long, thank you. Then, I'll hold my cash for the next dip. They always happen.